In the latest CNN national poll, Trump continues his surge–up 8 points since the August poll–to lead the field with 32 percent support. Carson doubled his support, rising ten points to 19 percent.  The Fiorina surge appears to have stalled: she’s down to 3 percent in this poll.

More GOP voters believe Trump will be the nominee, even though they say they would prefer Ben Carson. Bush, declining 4 points to 9 percent, is in third place. Huckabee and Walker are tied at 5 percent, continuing the Walker slump. (In August, 14 percent of GOP voters thought Walker would be the nominee. That number is down to 1 percent).

32 percent of white Evangelicals back Trump, but 28 percent now support Carson.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at American Principles in Action.