The latest Gravis poll has Trump ahead in Nevada with 33 percent, Cruz second at 20 percent, and Rubio third with 11 percent. That’s a slight decline for Trump from the October CNN poll but a huge surge for Cruz from 4 percent to 20 percent.

Carson was at 22 percent then but has plummeted to 6 percent now. It looks like Cruz has been the main beneficiary of his decline. Rubio is up slightly from 7 percent to 11 percent.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project.