A new poll from the Democracy Institute and the Sunday Express reveals what the election would look like if pollsters didn’t routinely weight their samples heavily in favor of Democrats: Donald Trump comes out ahead.
As reported by The National Pulse Editor-in-Chief Raheem Kassam, pollsters routinely create a weighted sample that over-represents Democrats in order to create a false impression that Republican candidates are trailing.
The latest Biden-Trump head-to-head poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal does precisely that, Kassam explained on Twitter:
Wow! How did this happen? I’ll explain:
The poll sampled 35% DEM, 27% REP, 38% IND. So a DEM+8 vs REP.
The last poll sampled DEM+3.
So they changed the weighting by 5 points and now report “OMG BIDEN IS UP ANOTHER 6 POINTS FROM THE LAST POLL!”
It’s a fraudulent industry. https://t.co/cbfc0cYK88
— Raheem J. Kassam (@RaheemKassam) October 4, 2020
Now, a Sunday Express/Democracy Institute poll shows Donald Trump in the lead because it does not weight against Republicans.
The Express‘ David Maddox reported:
The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent.
The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19.
But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”.
Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics.
Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.
This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.
While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.
While the NBC/WSJ poll sampled 8 percentage points more Democrats, the Democracy Institute polls methodology is more fair:
The national poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent.
It just goes to show how easily polling can be manipulated, and how much pollsters and media organizations are willing to do it.