The very first poll out of Missouri, which votes on Tuesday, has just been released, and it confirms Ted Cruz is breathing down Donald Trump’s neck — he sits just seven points behind the front runner, 36 percent to 29 percent (which is within the poll’s margin of error). Marco Rubio and John Kasich are in single digits.

If the late deciders break against Trump, as has been happening, this looks like a possible pickup for Cruz.

The Midwest, not the South, is turning out to be Cruz country. Trump is having trouble picking up more than a third of the vote in states like Michigan and Kansas. They like their politicians to talk decently, at a minimum, it seems.

However, if the field remains divided, one-third may still be enough for Trump.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe.