Frank, Bush and Walker are leading in the latest New Hampshire poll, released yesterday by Suffolk University. The results were as follows (rounding them off):
- Undecided: 24%
- Jeb Bush: 19%
- Scott Walker: 14%
- Rand Paul: 7%
- Donald Trump: 6%
- Ted Cruz: 5%
- Chris Christie: 5%
- Marco Rubio: 3%
- Mike Huckabee: 3%
- Ben Carson: 3%
- Carly Fiorina: 2%
- Lindsey Graham: 1%
- Rick Perry: 1%
- Bobby Jindal: 1%
These results paint a somewhat different picture for many of the candidates than the other New Hampshire poll this week that I covered, which showed Bush and Walker leading with relative few undecideds: 16 percent versus 24 percent in the latest poll. Additionally, the Gravis poll painted a much more optimistic picture for candidates like Christie, Rubio, Carson, and Fiorina, who have much lower numbers in this poll.
While neither poll is a bellwether for the upcoming primary, the discrepancies between the two show that the race is still very much fluid and prone to change.
The new Suffolk poll also included favorability ratings for Christie, Bush, Walker, Carson, Paul, and Huckabee, allowing for the use of the Frank Cannon Metric:
- Walker: +31 net favorability, 39% undecided or don’t know the name
- Carson: +24 net favorability, 54% undecided or don’t know the name
- Huckabee: +21 net favorability, 21% undecided or don’t know the name
- Paul: +19 net favorability, 28% undecided or don’t know the name
- Bush: +15 net favorability, 19% undecided or don’t know the name
- Christie: -1 net favorability, 23% undecided or don’t know the name
Based on those results, Walker is clearly a front runner, as he has a base of support and a good deal of undecided voters to win over, and if you want to pick a dark horse, consider Carson. On the other hand, if the Cannon metric is valid, Christie is in a difficult position to overcome.
Joshua Pinho works for American Principles in Action.
