A bunch of national polls came out yesterday, and things are starting to look a little better for Donald Trump:
- Fox News: Clinton, 44 percent; Trump, 38 percent
- Quinnipiac: Clinton, 42 percent; Trump, 40 percent
- Rasmussen: Clinton, 39 percent; Trump, 43 percent
While Donald Trump had his worst month of the campaign in June, he appears to be narrowing the gap on Hillary Clinton. Rasmussen actually has him leading, which is the first national poll that has shown him ahead since May 19th.
Polling seems to be all over the place right now, and the varying party-line breakdowns are partially to blame.
Democrats
- Fox News: Clinton, 83 percent; Trump, 6 percent
- Quinnipiac: Clinton 89 percent; Trump, 3 percent
- Rasmussen: Clinton, 76 percent; Trump, 14 percent
Republicans
- Fox News: Trump, 74 percent; Clinton, 10 percent
- Quinnipiac: Trump, 84 percent; Clinton, 6 percent
- Rasmussen: Trump, 75 percent; Clinton, 10 percent
Independents
- Fox News: Trump, 39 percent; Clinton, 31 percent
- Quinnipiac: Trump, 36 percent; Clinton, 34 percent
- Rasmussen: Trump, 45 percent; Clinton, 27 percent
These are pretty heavy variations, and the result is what will matter on Election Day. How significant is #NeverTrump? Will Trump carry 85 to 90 percent of Republicans, as he probably needs to in order to win?
What percentage of Democrats will defect? Will Clinton maintain Obama-like uniformity among Democrats, like the Quinnipiac poll suggests — just 3 percent defecting — or will she lose a pretty sizable chunk — 14 percent defecting — like the Rasmussen poll suggests?
And what about the all-important Independents?
The lack of uniformity in these polls makes it really hard to gauge reality. But my guess is that Trump, while still an underdog, is probably more viable than the average pundit thinks.
Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director for American Principles Project. Follow him on Twitter @JonSchweppe.
