Rumors of Donald Trump’s demise may have been greatly exaggerated.
After several weeks of bad news stories — and bad results in Wisconsin, Colorado, and Wyoming — Trump is poised to get back to his winning ways next Tuesday, April 19th, with New York’s GOP primary. According to a new poll from NY1/Baruch College, Trump leads in New York with 60 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz and John Kasich both trail substantially, with 17 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
A total of 95 delegates are up for grabs in New York. Here’s how they will be allocated:
- 14 delegates go to the overall winner of the statewide popular vote.
- 81 delegates are assigned by congressional district, with each of New York’s 27 congressional districts receiving 3 delegates.
- If a candidate wins a congressional district with more than 50 percent of the vote, he wins all three delegates.
- If a candidate wins a congressional district with less than 50 percent of the vote, and another candidate manages to earn more than 20 percent, two delegates go to the winner and one delegate goes to the candidate who finishes second.
- If a candidate wins a congressional district with less than 50 percent of the vote, but no other candidate eclipses 20 percent, he wins all 3 delegates.
Confusing? Not really. There are only three remaining candidates, which means that it will be virtually impossible for Trump to finish below 50 percent in a congressional district without another candidate breaking 20 percent, barring a barrage of Jeb Bush protest votes.
That means it comes down to Cruz and Kasich. Can either of them break 20 percent — anywhere? Or will this NY1/Baruch College poll, which showed both Cruz and Kasich lagging the 20 percent threshold statewide, hold up?
Both campaigns need to focus their efforts in specific, winnable congressional districts to have a shot at securing even a few delegates on April 19. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Cruz could do this successfully in the more rural parts of upstate New York (NY-19, NY-21, NY-22, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25, NY-27), while Kasich might have a chance to hit 20 percent in the suburbs and New York City proper.
But really, it’s just guessing at this point, and it sure looks like Trump is going to win big next Tuesday. New York is, after all, his home state.
New York Prediction: Trump, 88 delegates; Cruz, 5 delegates; Kasich, 2 delegates
Post-NY Projected Delegate Count: Trump 831, Cruz 550, Kasich 145
Post-NY Delegates to Go: 674
Post-NY Delegates Needed to Secure Nomination: Trump 406 (60% of remaining), Cruz 687 (102% of remaining), Kasich 1,092 (162% of remaining)
Jon Schweppe is Communications Director for the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @JonSchweppe.