2016 is shaping up to be one of the largest primary fields in recent memory, and with several candidates still unannounced, the media has had a hard time searching for a “frontrunner.” Quinnipiac and Bloomberg provided the latest attempts to pin down voter preferences in Iowa and New Hampshire, with interesting results:
Iowa (Quinnipiac)
- Scott Walker: 21%
- Marco Rubio: 13%
- Rand Paul: 13
- Ted Cruz: 12%
- Mike Huckabee: 11%
- Ben Carson: 7%
- Jeb Bush: 5%
- Chris Christie: 3%
- Rick Perry: 3%
- Rick Santorum: 2%
- Carly Fiorina: 2%
- John Kasich: 2%
This poll marks Scott Walker’s second time with a clear lead in our nation’s first presidential contest (although slightly diminished from his ten point lead last month) while the race for second place is a dead heat between Rubio, Paul, Cruz, and Huckabee. Jeb Bush comes into a 7th place finish of only 5 percent, signaling he may be having problems with the conservative voters in the state.
New Hampshire (Bloomberg)
- Scott Walker: 12%
- Rand Paul: 12%
- Jeb Bush: 11%
- Marco Rubio: 11%
- Chris Christie: 7%
- Ted Cruz: 6%
- Ben Carson: 5%
- Mike Huckabee: 4%
- Carly Fiorina: 3%
- Rick Perry 1%
- Lindsey Graham: 1%
Over the past month, the polling in New Hampshire has been a seesaw between a Walker or Bush lead. Now, however, the state appears truly up for grabs: Rand Paul and Scott Walker hold a statistically insignificant one point lead, with Bush and Rubio snapping at their heels. The next tier of candidates (Cruz, Christie, Carson, etc.) are only about 5 points behind the first tier (barely above the margin of error), so let’s label this state a nail biter this point.
Nick Arnold is a researcher for American Principles in Action.
