Thirty-three percent of likely GOP caucus-goers in the CNN poll preferred Donald Trump while only 20 percent opted for Ted Cruz, a 13-point Trump advantage and 18-point swing from the Monmouth poll. Ben Carson was third with 16 percent and Marco Rubio fourth with 11 percent.
It should be noted that the sample size was larger for CNN (552 Republican respondents) than for Monmouth (425) and that the date range was different as well (the CNN poll was conducted over the past 9 days while the Monmouth poll covered only the previous 4 days). What this means for the polls’ respective reliability is…anyone’s guess.
The main takeaways ought to be that determining who is a likely caucus-goer is more of a polling art than a science and that the Iowa race still appears quite fluid with almost two months left until caucus time.
Paul Dupont is the managing editor for ThePulse2016.com.