After last night’s debate, I think that there is a strong possibility that a Marco Rubio surge to a close 3rd — or even 2nd — place in Iowa is possible, and that will change the outlook in New Hampshire and South Carolina greatly.
I was at a happy hour with the gang from RealClearPolitics last night. They had an interesting question and answer session with Michael Barone on what he thinks is likely to happen in the 2016 nomination process.
The most interesting thing that Barone pointed out was the 1984 Democratic Caucus in Iowa. In that contest, Walter Mondale won a crushing victory, garnering almost 50 percent of the vote. The next closest contender was Senator Gary Hart of Colorado at 16 percent. With that big of a margin, the headlines leading into the New Hampshire primary had to be the stunning victory of Mondale, right?
Wrong.
The headlines all pointed to the incredible surge by Sen. Hart. He had come out of nowhere and managed to get to double digits — clearly he had a real shot at the nomination with this growth in support!
Barone made the argument that this could happen with Rubio if he comes in a close 3rd. Rubio would have to make the case that he is the alternative to both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, and that he’s the guy for New Hampshire voters.
Frank Cannon has also made this prediction in his “Cigar with Frank Cannon” videos — which, by the way, are a must watch.
Terry Schilling is the executive director of American Principles Project.
