Unlike Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden, President Trump enjoyed a boost in the polls following the Republican National Convention and nearly halved the 10-point lead reportedly held by Biden.
As the National Pulse Editor-in-Chief Raheem Kassam pointed out, candidates who fail to receive a post-convention bump have historically suffered a loss on Election Day – an ominous prospect for Biden and promising pattern for President Trump.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains his polling lead over President Donald Trump, though the commander in chief gained ground on the former vice president after the party conventions, according to a Morning Consult poll released Saturday.
According to the poll, Biden leads Trump by six points, polling 50% to Trump’s 44% among likely voters, compared to 52% to 42% before the Republican National Convention, but after the Democratic National Convention.
The poll was conducted Friday, the day after the RNC concluded. The poll showing Biden with a 10-point lead was conducted August 23, after the DNC.
A Morning Consult survey taken on the first day of the DNC found Biden leading Trump by eight points, compared to nine points immediately after the DNC, in a poll conducted August 22.
Biden’s standing was virtually unchanged before and after his convention, while Trump’s improved. This parallels Morning Consult’s polling from 2016, when Trump gained five percentage points of voter support after the RNC.
Morning Consult noted, however, that the major difference between this year and 2016 is the smaller number of undecided voters left on the table.
“Due to a smaller share of undecided voters, Biden, who continues to have about half of the electorate’s support, remains in a significantly stronger position than Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was four years ago,” Morning Consult reported.
Only about 7% of respondents said they were undecided after this year’s conventions, compared to 16% at the same point in 2016.
The poll also noted a slightly stronger divide along racial lines: Trump improved his lead among white voters, and emerged with a slightly worse standing with voters of color.
Among white voters, Trump led Biden 51% to 43% after the RNC, compared with a 2-point edge earlier in the week.
In contrast, he trailed Biden by 28 points among Hispanic voters (33% to 61%) and 74 points among Black voters (9% to 83%).
The poll also noted that Trump hurt Biden’s margin among suburban voters. Before the convention, Biden led by 14 points (54% to 40%), compared to 8 points after the convention (50% to 42%).
“The president and his allies also sought to claim the mantle of the party of law and order and a last line of defense against a creeping radical socialism from the Democratic Party, messaging largely aimed at white people and suburbanites, who will be key for the president in order to win in November,” the poll noted.
Friday’s poll was conducted among 4,035 likely voters with a 2-point margin of error, and the August 23 poll was conducted among 4,810 likely voters with a 1-point margin of error.