Will California Decide the 2020 Democratic Nominee?

California is no longer the shimmering light up ahead in the distance, but the immediate one, as the Golden State is poised to have a larger than usual role in the 2020 election. It has quickly become the most critical victory for candidates in the Democratic primary, and the outcome will impact ballots throughout the country. In 2017, the California legislature shifted the state’s primary date, which previously had been one of the latest, to March 3rd, the earliest possible day for states not part of the traditional early group. California also has an early voting system, which allows  voters

Don’t Bury Cruz Just Yet

“Et tu, Schweppe?” A Shakespeare you may be, but a Michael Barone not so much. Without a doubt, Donald Trump had a stellar Tuesday night and drew closer to the nomination. But don’t get out the “Make America Great Again!” party horns just yet. Trump is still almost 281 delegates away from securing the nomination and the hill will be steeper than you think. “These are not margins that can be explained away by geography or demographics. These margins are a symptom of a campaign that has now concluded.” I’d agree except that these margins were similar to Trump’s margins in

New Poll: Trump Surging to 49 Percent in California

Just a few weeks ago, Ted Cruz was within striking distance of Donald Trump in California, 39 percent to 32 percent. The assumption of many (including me) has been that Trump has a ceiling — as the front-runner’s controversies mounted, the undecideds were looking for an un-Trump they could support. Instead in the last two weeks, it is Cruz who is hitting a hard cap on his support, while Trump surges again. The latest CBS poll shows Trump gaining massive ground, rising to 49 percent while Cruz stays at 31 percent. What is happening? Two weeks without a disgust-invoking moment

Even After Ending Campaign, Rubio Still Working to Stop Trump

Sen. Marco Rubio may have suspended his campaign over three weeks ago, but he has not given up the fight to defeat Donald Trump just yet. In addition to calling Ted Cruz “the only conservative left in the race” in a thank you call to supporters, offering Cruz implicit support if not an explicit endorsement, Rubio has also been taking other quiet steps to halt Trump’s march to the nomination. Last week, RedState reported that Rubio filed paperwork to have his name removed from the California primary ballot — a move which could improve Cruz’s chances of defeating Trump in

My Prediction: Trump Won’t Break 1,000 Delegates

Donald Trump is headed to victory in New York, but the question is: can he can break the 50 percent barrier? I think not because lately he’s been underperforming his polls. But looking ahead, things start to get really tough for Trump, who continues to face massive resistance for a front runner and who has refused to invest in an actual campaign infrastructure to fight for delegates. Two polls show Trump ahead in California and Maryland (by 7 and 10 points, respectively), but Trump is polling at only 39 percent in California and 40 percent in Maryland. Meanwhile, the rich delegate pile

New California Poll: Can Cruz Beat Trump?

A new Los Angeles Times poll has Ted Cruz surging to within one point of Donald Trump in California, 36 percent to 35 percent, with John Kasich lagging at 14 percent. That’s a big jump for Cruz from the last poll in early March which had Trump leading 38 percent to 27 percent with Kasich at 14 percent. Ex-Rubio voters appear to recognize that Cruz is the only candidate who can beat Trump. Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe.

New Polls: Where Is Trump in California?

Two new California polls show Donald Trump is either at 38 percent, up 16 points over Ted Cruz, or he’s at 25 percent, just five points over Cruz. Either way, Cruz has 20 or 22 percent. John Kasich (and Marco Rubio, who was still in the race) trail. Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at the American Principles Project and can be followed on Twitter @MaggieGallaghe.