Trump’s 2020 Chances Could Hinge on China Trade Deal

Recently, the stock market has been on a wild ride after trade war escalations including the U.S. labeling China a currency manipulator, the announcement of $550 billion in new tariffs, and a confusing tweet ordering U.S. manufacturers to make contingency plans to relocate from China. As Steve Forbes noted on Fox Business, the stock market is sending a clear warning signal that the trade war must be resolved, and the longer President Trump waits, the greater political risk he is taking. To see such major trade war escalations as the 2020 election cycle heats up is perplexing, especially since the President

Why the Fed Should Abandon Its Latest Bad, Big-Government Idea

Like many institutions in government, the Federal Reserve has dramatically increased in size and scope since its inception. The Fed was originally established to be a lender of last resort, then expanded its charter to a “dual mandate” of maintaining dollar stability and minimizing unemployment through monetary policy, and currently has oversight over banks and other financial institutions. Now, the Federal Reserve is preparing another major expansion of its operations that has not received enough attention: the central bank wishes to create a payment system to compete against the private sector. Peter Ferrara summed up the issued in the American

Does the Gold Price Spike Mean Trouble Ahead for the Global Economy?

In a recent appearance on Fox News, supply-side economist Arthur Laffer was asked to give his assessment of the global economy after a week of market turmoil due to tariffs and currency devaluation from China. Laffer does not view the United States as having an immediate risk of recession, but he warned that the rest of the world is not doing well economically and this is weighing heavily on the U.S. as well. Laffer then elaborated on what he views as the most worrying signal for global growth: The indicator I see that is a problem, that tells me that

American Baby Bust? US Fertility Rate Hits All-Time Low

The fertility rate in the United States is at an all-time low, according to a National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) report which came out last week. The agency, which falls under the oversight of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), confirmed that birth rates fell by 2 percent in 2018. Since 2000, America has seen a troubling decrease in fertility. Most years, the number of births has teetered around four million, with the exception of a short-lived rally in the mid-2000s. This past decade, however, has been particularly unproductive. Although some years, such as 2017, have seen

Democratic Debate, Round 2: Key Things to Watch

As the Democratic candidates prepare for the second round of presidential debates Tuesday and Wednesday night, here are four key candidates whose economic agendas I’ll be watching for: Joe Biden Biden will likely come out swinging after his last debate performance was broadly criticized for appearing overly tired. On economic issues, I am most looking forward to seeing if he puts forward a more centrist vision than he has thus far in the campaign. While Biden has held back support for Medicare-for-All by continuing to champion Obamacare, he has held the socialist line on tax policy, stating the “first thing”

This Week in Economics: 3 Stories You Should Know About

This week we had some interesting economic developments in both monetary policy and regulatory policy. Here is a look at the top stories you should pay attention to: 1) House Democrats vote to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour. Yesterday House Democrats voted almost unanimously in favor of raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour. Only six House Democrats voted “no” while only three House Republicans voted “yes.” You can see those who bucked the party leadership here. Putting aside the fact that the Congressional Budget Office estimates this legislation would destroy 1.3 to 3.7 million jobs,

Why Nancy Pelosi Can’t Stop This Trump Tax Cut

As President Trump is finding out this year, House Democrats have been an enormous roadblock to his America First agenda. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has not only stalled immigration reform and infrastructure talks, she’s also joined the conspiracy choir in hurling insults at the President long after his exoneration from charges of Russian collusion by the Mueller report. Unfortunately for Pelosi, according to recent reports, she will be unable to stop the next big policy achievement from the White House. President Trump may soon completely bypass Congress to deliver massive tax cuts that would add rocket fuel to the U.S.

Inflation Ahead? Gold, Bitcoin Price Spikes Signal Weakening Dollar

Today, gold surged to a six-year high following signals from the Federal Reserve that rate cuts could be coming as soon as next month. While some believe that a more dovish Fed would be bullish for economic growth, the recent spike in gold prices offers a more cautionary note. RealClearMarkets editor John Tamny explains: To paraphrase the classical economic thinkers whom supply siders have historically (and rather wisely) sided with, gold is the commodity least influenced by outside influences. Precisely because there’s so much gold stock versus new discoveries of the yellow metal, its price is impressively stable. It’s no