March 15th or Super Tuesday 3 (I originally called it Super Tuesday 2, but apparently March 8th was “super” as well) was a good night for Donald Trump. He won every state that he led the polls in. He wracked up lots of delegates and took one step closer to the GOP nomination for president. It was an incredibly bad night for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who, after losing his home state of Florida, badly, suspended his campaign. Ohio Governor John Kasich came in second tonight in terms of delegates, but still finds himself trailing far behind the other
Florida and Ohio have carried much of the attention over Super Tuesday II because of their 165 winner-take-all delegates. But Illinois and Missouri, with 121 delegates between them, could turn them into swing states. A RealClearPolitics piece today notes their vital importance to the consolidation in the Republican Primary: The Republican primaries Tuesday in Ohio and Florida have been the focus of most candidates and the media, but two other contests, in Illinois and Missouri, could be just as pivotal to Donald Trump’s march toward the nomination or its demise. […] Trump leads in both states, but Sen. Ted Cruz
Here’s my contrarian thought for the day: our only shot at beating Donald Trump is for Trump to win both Ohio and Florida today. I know. I know. Everyone has been filling your head with Mitt Romney’s anti-Cruz fantasy: we can direct voters to vote in this state or that state strategically. Because the GOP establishment and/or its losing last choice for the nomination has that much power and authority over voters. Because our hope is to keep a divided race going with particular candidates picking off one state or another, starting with their home state. Tonight’s vote is going
The 2016 GOP primary has three major “Super Tuesdays.” Super Tuesday I was on March 1st, where 632 delegates were awarded — more than a quarter of all delegates. Super Tuesday II is tomorrow on March 15th. There are 367 delegates up for grabs in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina. Super Tuesday III may end up being pivotal. It will take place on June 7, when five states, including California, will determine the first ballot votes of 303 delegates. Will tomorrow prove to be “Super Tuesday, Episode II: The Establishment Strikes Back”? Probably not. A cursory look at the delegate math
Erick Erickson just came out with a great piece. Clearly a deal is in place. Via The Resurgent: Jeb Bush has a private meeting with Kasich, Cruz, and Rubio. Cruz’s campaign, after a lot of bluster about going all in in Florida admits it was all a head fake. They had one event scheduled for today with Sean Hannity in Orlando that was previously scheduled and will be nationally focused, not Florida focused. Then Cruz is bailing on Florida. For the Rubio folks complaining, I’m told the campaign did try to make adjustments, but couldn’t for reasons not in the campaign’s control.
This is not the narrative Marco Rubio anticipated he’d hear in the run-up to what was hoped would be one of the most significant moments in his young political career: having Florida GOP voters endorse their junior Senator as the next President of the United States. Instead, the political noise for him to sacrifice his campaign and allow a strategic conservative consolidation against front-runner Donald Trump has grown increasingly shrill. It could be expected that opponents and pundits would call for him to drop or to throw in with another candidate. But word is that Rubio backers, donors, and even
Florida voters are watching this ad from Donald Trump, who has used negative attack ads sparingly: “Corrupt Marco Rubio” the ad says “has spent years defrauding the people of Florida. As a legislator, he flipped on a key vote after making a quick $200,000 from selling his house to the mother of the bill’s lobbyist. He used the Republican Party’s credit card to pave his driveway, and to live it up in Las Vegas. . . . Marco Rubio: another corrupt, all-talk, no-action politician.” It’s an effective ad, framing Rubio as bought and sold, but we will see whether the
Quinnipiac released a new poll today out of Florida, and it’s not looking good for Marco Rubio. Via Quinnipiac: The Donald Trump juggernaut rolls into Florida where the GOP front-runner leads native son Sen. Marco Rubio 44 – 28 percent among likely Republican primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has 12 percent with Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 7 percent and Dr. Ben Carson at 4 percent. Trump gets a low negative score in the Sunshine State as 21 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they “would definitely not support”