Four Post-Iowa N.H. Polls Out

Four new polls taken since Donald Trump’s Iowa loss have now come out. They don’t really show Trump taking much of hit yet in New Hampshire, if you do poll-to-poll comparisons. ARG, for example, had Trump at 34 percent just before Iowa and 36 percent after. The CNN/WMUR poll has Trump as 29 percent now, just a 1 percent drop from its last late-January poll of 30 percent. The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll has Trump at 30 percent, a one percent drop from its last mid-January poll of 31 percent. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have both gotten boosts from their Iowa performance, with

Clinton Campaign Comforts Backers

On Monday night, Iowa was surprised to find that Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were locked in a literal 50-50 battle for Democratic voters.  Now, the Associated Press marks the official results as Clinton – 49.9 percent, and Sanders – 49.6 percent (with Martin O’Malley taking 0.6 percent before dropping out of the race altogether). The race was so close that, in an unusual scene even for American politics, six separate coin flips were needed to decide where the last remaining delegates would be assigned. So in a race that close, why is the Clinton campaign acting as if they’ve

The Media ‘Forgot’ To Report Something Really Important From Iowa

Hey, uh, mainstream media folks? You forgot to mention something in your coverage Monday night. Ted Cruz is the first Hispanic-American to ever win the Iowa Caucus. And not only that, he is the first Hispanic-American to win any presidential primary – for any party – ever. And it was the religious right that pushed him to victory. 51 percent of Iowa caucus-goers – some of the whitest voters in the country – voted for Latino candidates. Cruz received 28 percent of the vote, while Marco Rubio placed third with 23 percent. Three of the top four finishing Republican candidates

The Forgotten Story: How Common Core Changed the Race in Iowa

Now that Iowa caucus-goers have spoken, lost in the discussion of Donald Trump’s underperformance, Ted Cruz’s ground game and Marco Rubio’s surge is an acknowledgement of one issue that separated the top Iowa finishers from (as Trump would say) the “losers.” That issue is Common Core. Cruz and Rubio have long been on record as opposing the national standards. Trump has relentlessly raised the issue ever since he entered the race. As the Iowa campaign came down to the wire, Trump released a Common Core-specific ad, and Rubio began devoting more and more time in his stump speech to the

Trump’s Ridiculous “Fraud” Claim Shows He’s More About Whining Than Winning

I didn’t realize that Trump is an expert on Iowa election law. Probably because he’s not. He does not have any idea what he is talking about. We can argue the ethics of what Senator Cruz’s campaign did with the distasteful mailer in Iowa and with the late email to grassroots activists, but neither are criminal or meet the criteria of voter fraud or, as Iowa calls it, “election misconduct.” Here’s a link to the relevant Iowa Code. Most people on the ground can tell you that Cruz’s superior organization and his coalescing evangelicals and libertarians are what won the

Why Did Trump Accuse Cruz of “Fraud”?

This morning, Donald Trump appeared to melt down on Twitter. After a gracious concession speech in Iowa, he is now accusing Ted Cruz of “fraud,” saying he “stole” the Iowa caucus: Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa Caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016 Trump’s reasons for this drastic change of tone may vary. First, it is likely a standard Trump tactic of stealing the spotlight by saying the most outrageous things, whatever they are, in order to suck in all the media attention possible. Second,

The One Surprising Thing Missing From Rubio’s Great Third Place Iowa Victory Speech

It was a great speech, and vintage Rubio rising: aspirational, eloquent, moving. Ted Cruz may be a better debater, but Marco Rubio is the best communicator in the race. But afterwards, I had this nagging feeling there was something missing from Rubio’s speech, something that bothered me. This morning, I read the transcripts. Here is Sen. Cruz, heading into New Hampshire fight, but still proudly reminding the large national audience: Here is the number of times Marco Rubio mentioned life, marriage or religious liberty in his high-profile 3rd place Iowa victory speech: zero. The closest he came to any mention

The Top Two (Other) Biggest Losers After Iowa

The two other biggest losers as a result of Ted Cruz’s Iowa victory: 1. Terry Branstad And His Crony Capitalist Buddies Branstad launched an “anyone but Cruz” movement in Iowa, proving it’s Cruz, not Donald Trump, who really scares the GOP’s crony capitalists. Gov. Branstad’s lobbyist son Eric leads a group of donors pouring a big chunk of money into ads attacking Cruz on ethanol in Iowa. Cruz correctly identified this Branstad dynamic as the way crony capitalism operates in Washington as well as Des Moines, as National Review reported: Appearing on Meet the Press, Cruz said Branstad’s “son is a lobbyist who

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