Do Churchgoers Vote for Trump?

There’s been a lot of talk of evangelical support for Donald Trump, and it’s true Trump has just about swept South including North Carolina earlier this week. But in Missouri, where Trump beat Ted Cruz by the narrowest of margins, the exit polls for the first time asked voters about their church attendance and not just their religious affiliation. It shows what many of us have suspected: a massive rebellion against Trump among Christians who actually attend religious services regularly. Among those who show up at church once a week or more, Cruz crushed Trump, 55 percent to 32 percent

Nine Takeaways from Super Tuesday 3

March 15th or Super Tuesday 3 (I originally called it Super Tuesday 2, but apparently March 8th was “super” as well) was a good night for Donald Trump. He won every state that he led the polls in. He wracked up lots of delegates and took one step closer to the GOP nomination for president.  It was an incredibly bad night for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who, after losing his home state of Florida, badly, suspended his campaign. Ohio Governor John Kasich came in second tonight in terms of delegates, but still finds himself trailing far behind the other

Why Illinois and Missouri Matter Today

Florida and Ohio have carried much of the attention over Super Tuesday II because of their 165 winner-take-all delegates. But Illinois and Missouri, with 121 delegates between them, could turn them into swing states. A RealClearPolitics piece today notes their vital importance to the consolidation in the Republican Primary: The Republican primaries Tuesday in Ohio and Florida have been the focus of most candidates and the media, but two other contests, in Illinois and Missouri, could be just as pivotal to Donald Trump’s march toward the nomination or its demise. […] Trump leads in both states, but Sen. Ted Cruz

By the Numbers: Super Tuesday II

The 2016 GOP primary has three major “Super Tuesdays.” Super Tuesday I was on March 1st, where 632 delegates were awarded — more than a quarter of all delegates. Super Tuesday II is tomorrow on March 15th. There are 367 delegates up for grabs in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina. Super Tuesday III may end up being pivotal. It will take place on June 7, when five states, including California, will determine the first ballot votes of 303 delegates. Will tomorrow prove to be “Super Tuesday, Episode II: The Establishment Strikes Back”? Probably not. A cursory look at the delegate math

First Missouri Poll: Trump Ahead of Cruz By Just Seven Points

The very first poll out of Missouri, which votes on Tuesday, has just been released, and it confirms Ted Cruz is breathing down Donald Trump’s neck — he sits just seven points behind the front runner, 36 percent to 29 percent (which is within the poll’s margin of error). Marco Rubio and John Kasich are in single digits. If the late deciders break against Trump, as has been happening, this looks like a possible pickup for Cruz. The Midwest, not the South, is turning out to be Cruz country. Trump is having trouble picking up more than a third of the vote in