Trump’s Path to 270 Is Easier Than You Think

“It’s over. Trump can’t win.” That’s the narrative the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media have relentlessly promoted over the past several days. The problem with that narrative is that it is a bald-faced lie. This election is nowhere near over. Not even close! Let’s take a look at the electoral map. Remember, to become the next president of the United States, Trump needs to win 270 electoral votes. Conversely, he needs to hold Hillary Clinton to 269 electoral votes because, with a Republican House of Representatives, a 269-269 tie is likely to also result in a Trump presidency. Trump’s baseline

The Five Battleground States Trump Needs to Win

The media has grown obsessed with driving the narrative that Hillary Clinton has this election in the bag. Supposedly, according to our elite overlords, this election is so over. You might as well stay home! But when you analyze the data, placed in context, especially on a state-by-state basis, this narrative reveals itself to be ridiculous. The presidential race is still very close. It’s not over yet. Some pollsters say Clinton is up double digits. Others say the race is a virtual tie. The stark differences can be chalked up to differing turnout models: Will Democrats turn out for Hillary Clinton

State-by-State Breakdown: Here’s How Hillary Could Lose

When trying to handicap the presidential race, it is tempting to rely on national polling. But ultimately the next president is not determined by the popular vote — he or she will be determined state-by-state via the electoral college. We report on national polling at The Pulse 2016 all the time, so I don’t mean to suggest there isn’t use for it. Analytics outfits like FiveThirtyEight have found heavy correlations between national polling and election results at the state level. Because of this correlation, it’s almost a mathematical certainty that, if Clinton wins the popular vote by ten points on

Trump Leads in Key Swing States in New Quinnipiac Poll

According to the results of the latest Quinnipiac poll, Donald Trump may be surging in three key swing states. The poll, released this morning, covered Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. When the choices were limited to just Trump and Hillary Clinton, the results were: Pennsylvania: Trump, 43 percent; Clinton, 41 percent Ohio: Trump, 41 percent; Clinton, 41 percent Florida: Trump, 42 percent; Clinton, 39 percent When Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included, the results get even better for Trump: Pennsylvania: Trump, 40 percent; Clinton, 34 percent; Johnson, 9 percent; Stein, 3 percent Ohio: Trump, 37 percent;

For Trump’s Presidential Hopes, It’s Rust (Belt) or Bust

Recent polling has not looked good for Donald Trump. While the presumptive GOP nominee had closed the gap with Hillary Clinton at the end of last month, June polling has shown her reopening the gap — up to nearly 6 points nationally by RealClearPolitics’ average. Seven of the past eight major national polls have shown Clinton with a lead of 5 points or greater. And numbers this week out of Florida — a vitally important swing state — were equally dismal, where Quinnipiac shows Clinton opening up a significant 5-point lead. Given Clinton’s apparent momentum, however, it is interesting to

Trump’s Surge Continues: The Donald Pulls Ahead of Hillary in More Polling

Two more national polls were released this weekend showing Donald Trump closing in on — and even pulling ahead of — Hillary Clinton. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has Trump just three points behind Clinton in a head-to-head match-up, an eight-point jump from last month and within the poll’s margin of error. And an ABC/Washington Post poll has Trump leading Clinton by two points, an 11-point swing from two months previous. Added to other recent polling, the combined RealClearPolitics average now shows Trump barely leading Clinton nationally, a massive surge from just weeks ago. Looking more closely at the numbers,

New Poll: Trump, Clinton Neck and Neck in Key Swing States

Quinnipiac is out with a new batch of battleground state polls. Brace yourselves, #NeverTrump’ers: The Donald might become president. From ABC News: In Florida and in Pennsylvania, Clinton is at 43 percent while Trump is 42 percent, according to the poll. Among Ohio voters, Trump gets 41 percent and Clinton gets 39 percent. Worth noting is that the gender and racial gaps in each state are wide. In all three states, Trump leads among men and white voters, while Clinton leads among women and nonwhite voters. For example, in Ohio, Clinton gets 76 percent of nonwhite voters, while Trump garners

Clinton Ties (Statistically) Kasich — in Ohio!

PPP is a Democratic pollster so take it with a grain of salt, but their latest poll shows that Hillary Clinton is in a statistical dead heat John Kasich in Ohio. Clinton has 41 percent to Kasich’s 43 percent, within the margin of error. Donald Trump is behind Clinton in Ohio 45 percent to 42 percent, while Ted Cruz is tanking there, losing to Clinton 44 percent to 35 percent. What does a result like this tell us? First, Hillary Clinton is eminently beatable. The more voters see her, the less they like her. Second, Kasich is likely taking a