New Polls Show Trump Needs Just One More State to Win

A new Florida poll from Suffolk University was released today showing Donald Trump with a slim, single-point lead over Hillary Clinton. But while this was only the latest poll showing a close race in the Sunshine State, it was enough to tip RealClearPolitics’ Florida polling average in the direction of Trump, who now leads by a slender 0.1-point margin. This means, going by RCP’s polling average in each state, Trump has closed to within six electoral votes of Clinton if the election were held today:   So, assuming all current polling is generally accurate, Trump still needs to see significant

New State Polls Confirm Trump’s Upward Trend

On Friday, we broke down the Electoral College and proposed several different scenarios where Trump could win the presidency. He needs to perform well in 12 key battleground states. Iowa and Virginia are two of those states. And according to a new pair of Emerson polls, Trump is winning in Iowa and virtually tied in Virginia. Emerson (Iowa, 8/31 – 9/1): Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 8 (Trump +5) Emerson (Virginia, 8/31 – 9/1): Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 11 (Clinton +1) That being said, we should probably curb our enthusiasm. Trump still has a lot of work to do in Pennsylvania

State-by-State Breakdown: Here’s How Hillary Could Lose

When trying to handicap the presidential race, it is tempting to rely on national polling. But ultimately the next president is not determined by the popular vote — he or she will be determined state-by-state via the electoral college. We report on national polling at The Pulse 2016 all the time, so I don’t mean to suggest there isn’t use for it. Analytics outfits like FiveThirtyEight have found heavy correlations between national polling and election results at the state level. Because of this correlation, it’s almost a mathematical certainty that, if Clinton wins the popular vote by ten points on

Good News for Trump: GOP Adds Droves of New Voters in Key States

Donald Trump may be losing in the polls, but he is winning in an area that could tip the scales in November — new voters. According to Politico, Republicans are picking up steam among voters in key battleground states, specifically Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Iowa. In Pennsylvania, for example, more than 85,000 voters have switched their registration from Democratic to Republican. And while Trump deserves some of the credit for this development, Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania GOP strategist, remarked, “My view is that a lot more of it is motivated by disgust that many Democrats have for the administration.”

Trump Leads in Key Swing States in New Quinnipiac Poll

According to the results of the latest Quinnipiac poll, Donald Trump may be surging in three key swing states. The poll, released this morning, covered Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. When the choices were limited to just Trump and Hillary Clinton, the results were: Pennsylvania: Trump, 43 percent; Clinton, 41 percent Ohio: Trump, 41 percent; Clinton, 41 percent Florida: Trump, 42 percent; Clinton, 39 percent When Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included, the results get even better for Trump: Pennsylvania: Trump, 40 percent; Clinton, 34 percent; Johnson, 9 percent; Stein, 3 percent Ohio: Trump, 37 percent;

For Trump’s Presidential Hopes, It’s Rust (Belt) or Bust

Recent polling has not looked good for Donald Trump. While the presumptive GOP nominee had closed the gap with Hillary Clinton at the end of last month, June polling has shown her reopening the gap — up to nearly 6 points nationally by RealClearPolitics’ average. Seven of the past eight major national polls have shown Clinton with a lead of 5 points or greater. And numbers this week out of Florida — a vitally important swing state — were equally dismal, where Quinnipiac shows Clinton opening up a significant 5-point lead. Given Clinton’s apparent momentum, however, it is interesting to

Poll: Clinton, Trump Deadlocked in Pennsylvania

Donald Trump continues to gain ground on Hillary Clinton, particularly in states which have not gone Republican in a presidential election in many years. According to a new poll released by Public Policy Polling, Trump and Clinton are tied at 44 percent support each in Pennsylvania, a state in which Trump hopes that pro-worker economic message will resonate with working class voters. While a generic Democrat and Bernie Sanders still enjoy leads in a general election scenario against Trump, concerns remain about Clinton’s popularity, even within the Democratic Party, and many are openly questioning whether enough Sanders supporters will back Clinton

New Poll: Trump, Clinton Neck and Neck in Key Swing States

Quinnipiac is out with a new batch of battleground state polls. Brace yourselves, #NeverTrump’ers: The Donald might become president. From ABC News: In Florida and in Pennsylvania, Clinton is at 43 percent while Trump is 42 percent, according to the poll. Among Ohio voters, Trump gets 41 percent and Clinton gets 39 percent. Worth noting is that the gender and racial gaps in each state are wide. In all three states, Trump leads among men and white voters, while Clinton leads among women and nonwhite voters. For example, in Ohio, Clinton gets 76 percent of nonwhite voters, while Trump garners

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