Right-wing populist parties are expected to make large gains in the 2024 European elections, reflecting a continent-wide trend in national politics that is seeing voters flock to increasingly conservative parties.
The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), advocating for greater member state sovereignty and stricter immigration control, among other things, is set to become the joint third-biggest party in the European Parliament with 89 seats – a “massive” 23-seat gain since 2019 – according to POLITICO’s in-house polling.
The populist Identity and Democracy Party, demanding increased security for native Europeans and tackling illegal immigration, is expected to win 77 seats, representing a 15-seat rise and driven by the recent success of Germany‘s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which recently achieved its first “landmark victory” and is polling second across the country with 21 percent of the popular vote.
The right’s gains would come at the cost of the centrist and left-wing parties. The European People’s Party (EPP) – currently the largest group in the European Parliament – is expected to lose 12 seats, bringing the total number to 165, with the far-left Greens predicted to lose a whopping 24 seats, maintaining only 48.
The elections are due to be held between June 6-9 next year, with the number of European Parliament Members expected to grow from 705 to 720.