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October 23, 2023
William Upton
Analysis
Politics

Byron Donalds Could Be the Next House Speaker.

Florida Congressman Byron Donalds, at least on paper, might strike most political insiders in Washington, D.C. as an unlikely candidate for Speaker of the House. Donalds is only just starting his second term in Congress giving him a a relatively thin track record, and outside election season it remains to be seen if Donalds has the fundraising prowess that is usually required as Speaker.

However, Donalds – unlike other Republican candidates for Speaker – is viewed fairly affably by the various factions in the House Republican Conference. The fact that the Florida Congressman has been able to forge working relationships with moderates and conservatives in the House could be critical in not just securing the Conference’s nomination as ‘Speaker designate’ on Tuesday – it could also be key in overcoming the so far seemingly impossible task of winning 217 votes on the floor. Finally, the allure of electing the first ever African-American Speaker of the House might just be what is needed to pull House Republicans together.

Byron Donalds was first elected to the House of Representatives during the 2020 election – winning Florida’s 19th Congressional District. The district contains some of the largest population centers along Florida’s southern Gulf coast including Naples, Cape Coral, Fort Meyers, and Bonita Springs. Prior to Congress, Donalds served as the Republican state representative for Florida’s 80th State House District from 2016 until 2020 – and ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2012.

Originally from the Crown Heights neighborhood of  New York City, Donalds – and two siblings – were raised by their single mother. He would go on to a professional career in finance, rising through the ranks at TIB Bank from credit analyst to vice president. In 2015, Donalds joined Wells Fargo Bank as a Financial Advisor.

Donalds, a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump’s bid to retake the White House in 2024, appears poised to be the most likely – if inexperienced – candidate that can bridge the divisions among House Republicans and end the stand-off over the vacant Speakership.

By Popular Demand.
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21 hours ago
Economy
News

American Family Businesses Back Trump Tariffs’ Boost to Domestic Manufacturing.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: American manufacturing is experiencing a resurgence, driven by President Donald J. Trump’s trade policies, which include tariffs.

👥 Who’s Involved: Family-owned businesses across the U.S., including Walker Forge, Franchino Mold & Engineering, ELLWOOD, and others, are voicing their support.

📍 Where & When: The impact is noted across various states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and more, as the tariffs continue to be implemented.

💬 Key Quote: Will Walker of Walker Forge stated, “The tariffs send a clear message that companies cannot undercut our U.S. industrial base anymore.”

⚠️ Impact: Tariffs are leveling the playing field for American manufacturers, encouraging the reshoring of production, and protecting U.S. jobs.

IN FULL:

President Donald J. Trump’s trade measures are garnering strong backing from numerous American family-owned manufacturing firms. The businesses, reflecting on years of unfair trade practices, are expressing approval of the administration’s tariffs intended to revive American industry.

Walker Forge, a third-generation business based in Wisconsin, manufactures steel forgings and is one of the companies vocal in its tariff support. President Will Walker emphasized that these trade policies underscore a paramount message: “The tariffs send a clear message that companies cannot undercut our U.S. industrial base anymore.”

In Michigan, Franchino Mold & Engineering’s Mike Hetherington highlighted the challenge U.S. companies face when competing with products subsidized abroad. The impact of artificially low-priced imports, particularly from China, strains domestic manufacturers abiding by stricter safety and labor norms. Hetherington supports tariffs that compel companies to reconsider their sourcing strategies in favor of domestic manufacturers.

ELLWOOD, operating out of Ellwood City, Pennsylvania, has been actively involved in sectors ranging from defense to aerospace. CEO Ben Huffman stated that current tariffs are needed to counterbalance the disadvantages U.S. manufacturers face due to subsidized foreign competition.

Additional support comes from businesses such as Industrial Molds in Illinois. The company states it is witnessing an increase in orders and interest under the prevailing tariffs.

Under President Trump’s tariff policy, many big corporations have announced significant investments in the United States. Tech giant NVIDIA, for instance, stated it wants to invest as much as $500 billion in American infrastructure to manufacture AI supercomputers.

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By Popular Demand.
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April 26, 2025
Christopher Tomlinson
Immigration
World

Europe Taking Most Asylum Seekers Since 2017.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: Europe saw the largest number of accepted asylum claims since 2017 last year.

👥 Who’s Involved: European Union (EU) member states, asylum seekers.

📍 Where & When: Eurostat announced the 2024 figures on April 25.

💬 Key Quote:  “This is the highest value since the peaks recorded after the refugee crisis related to the war in Syria in 2016 and 2017.” — Eurostat.

⚠️ Impact: The stats come as Europe supposedly tries to clamp down on illegal migration, proving that the issue remains unresolved.

IN FULL:

Europe accepted more asylum applications from migrants in 2024 than in any year since 2017, totaling over 430,000 migrants. The European statistics agency Eurostat announced the numbers this week, noting that half of the migrants came from either Syria or Afghanistan.

“This is the highest value since the peaks recorded after the refugee crisis related to the war in Syria in 2016 and 2017,” Eurostat said in a press release.

Germany saw the largest number of accepted asylum claims, making up 34.4 percent of the overall number. Over 185,000 migrants were given full refugee status, while over 169,000 were given subsidiary protection so they could not be deported. Nearly 14,000 migrants entered Europe as part of a United Nations (UN) program, with nearly half ending up in Germany.

Close to half of those who applied for asylum in 2024 were rejected, with Portugal accepting only ten asylum seekers last year, the highest rejection rate in Europe at 99.2 percent. Germany, on he other hand, rejected just 46.6 percent of applications.

Notably, even rejected asylum seekers are often not deported, even if they are officially served deportation orders.

This year, the European Commission, the EU’s unelected central executive, reported that France may overtake Germany as the most popular destination for asylum seekers. France recorded over 40,000 asylum applications in the first three months of this year, compared to just over 37,000 for Germany.

In recent years, many European Union member states have switched to focusing on controlling illegal migration and prioritizing the deportation of those who have no right to stay, as establishment political parties seek to head off electoral advances by anti-mass migration populists. Sweden is offering as much as $34,000 to migrants who wish to go back to their home countries.

Despite the change, the 2024 statistics show the number of illegal immigrants flowing across the borders of European member states remains historically high.

Image by Mstyslav Chernov.

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By Popular Demand.
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April 25, 2025
Christopher Tomlinson
War
World

Kiev Mayor Says Ukraine Could ‘Temporarily’ Surrender Land to Russia for Peace.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko admitted Ukraine might have to concede land to Russia for a peace deal temporarily.

👥 Who’s Involved: Mayor Vitali Klitschko, President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine, Russia.

📍 Where & When: Kiev, Ukraine, April 25.

💬 Key Quote: “One of the scenarios is… to give up territory. It’s not fair.” — Mayor Vitali Klitschko.

⚠️ Impact: The statements could reflect broader support within Ukraine for a peace deal brokered by the Trump administration.

IN FULL:

The Mayor of Kiev, former champion boxer Vitali Klitschko, has admitted that Ukraine may have to surrender land currently occupied by Russia to secure a peace deal. His comments contrast with President Volodymyr Zelensky, who stated that Ukraine would not accept any land being given to Russia, including Crimea.

“One of the scenarios is… to give up territory. It’s not fair,” Klitschko said. “But for the peace, temporary peace, maybe it can be a solution, temporary,” he added. The Kiev mayor admitted that he has no say in any potential peace process and that President Zelensky had not even spoken to him on the matter.

Klitschko is seen as a political opponent of Zelensky and has previously criticized the Ukrainian president. He has previously accused Zelensky of trying to usurp the power of elected officials and stated in 2023 that Ukraine was becoming an authoritarian state.

President Donald J. Trump has been attempting to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, but has been met with resistance from Zelensky, in particular. Earlier this week, President Trump accused Zelensky of trying to sabotage the peace process by making constant inflammatory remarks. These have included refusing to recognize even Crimea, a Russian-majority region that has been part of Russia for over a decade, as Russian territory.

Donald Trump Jr. also criticised Zelensky this week over his refusal to budge on Crimea, saying, “For those who haven’t been paying attention. Zelensky doesn’t want peace.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated last week that talks may fail if there is no progress in the coming days. Despite this, White House envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 25, and President Trump is also expected to meet with the Russian leader. However, no date for the meeting has been revealed so far.

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By Popular Demand.
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April 25, 2025
Economy
News

China Lifts Tariffs on Select US-Made Semiconductors.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: China has removed tariffs on certain types of semiconductors from the United States, reducing them from the initially suggested 125 percent to zero.

👥 Who’s Involved: The Chinese government, U.S. semiconductor manufacturers, and President Donald J. Trump.

📍 Where & When: The tariff exemptions were reported by a Chinese financial media outlet on a recent Friday, amid ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

💬 Key Quote: “He’s called. And I don’t think that’s a sign of weakness on his behalf,” President Trump on speaking with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade.

⚠️ Impact: The exemptions may signal China is cracking in its ongoing trade dispute with the U.S., although broader tariffs on goods continue, affecting various industries.

IN FULL:

China has quietly reduced tariffs on some American-made semiconductors amidst the trade conflict with the United States. This move lowers tariffs on at least eight categories of U.S. microchips to zero, a significant change from the 125 percent levy previously imposed by Beijing for various U.S. products.

These tariff exemptions on semiconductor imports reflect a selective easing in the economic tensions between the two nations.

President Donald J. Trump recently remarked that negotiations related to tariffs with China are ongoing, yet Chinese officials have denied such discussions. When asked about any conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump said, “He’s called. And I don’t think that’s a sign of weakness on his behalf.”

Earlier this month, Trump declared tariffs against several countries. A 90-day pause on higher rates was offered for nations open to negotiation, though Chinese imports remain heavily tariffed. Some goods, including many Chinese-made electronics like laptops and smartphones, have been temporarily exempted.

The Chinese exemptions could offer some respite to U.S. semiconductor manufacturers trading with China. Nonetheless, other American goods and sectors continue to face Chinese tariffs and trade barriers, though even before the trade conflict began, China imported far fewer American goods than goods it exported to America. Trade restrictions have been an escalating point of contention between the world’s largest economies, with varying impacts on global markets and industries.

The move shows that China may be willing to begin trade negotiations with the United States. All other countries that had tariffs placed on them have requested talks with President Trump and his administration.

Image via Wikimedia Commons.

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By Popular Demand.
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April 25, 2025
Politics
World

Trump Reiterates Seriousness About Greenland Purchase, Canada as Potential 51st State.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: President Donald J. Trump reiterated his interest in acquiring Greenland and Canada becoming the 51st state in an interview with TIME magazine, insisting these ideas are serious and not something he has floated in jest.

👥 Who’s Involved: President Trump, Eric Cortellessa (TIME magazine interviewer), and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

📍 Where & When: United States, Canada, and Greenland, with the comments being made in an interview with TIME magazine published on Friday.

💬 Key Quote: Trump stated, “Actually, no, I’m not,” when asked if he was trolling about the suggestion that Canada should become part of the United States.

⚠️ Impact: Potential geopolitical tensions concerning U.S. territorial ambitions, and implications for international security related to Arctic regions.

IN FULL:

In an interview published Friday, President Donald J. Trump emphasized his continued interest in acquiring Greenland and integrating Canada as a state in the U.S. Trump addressed these ambitions during a conversation with Eric Cortellessa of TIME magazine, emphasizing that his intentions are genuine rather than mere political jest. When Cortellessa pressed President Trump about whether his numerous comments about extending American influence over Canada and Greenland were just joking, the America First leader responded, “Actually, no, I’m not.”

“I think Greenland would be very well off… I think it’s important for us for national security and even international security,” Trump said. “I think Canada… you said that, ‘Well, that one, I might be trolling.’ But I’m really not trolling.”

“Canada is an interesting case. We lose $200 to $250 billion a year supporting Canada,” Trump noted, stating that he had spoken in the past with then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about the cost placed on American taxpayers for the U.S. military’s defense umbrella to extend over Canada. The President argued: “We’re taking care of their military. We’re taking care of every aspect of their lives, and we don’t need them to make cars for us. In fact, we don’t want them to make cars for us. We want to make our own cars. We don’t need their lumber. We don’t need their energy. We don’t need anything from Canada.”

He added: “And I say the only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state.”

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has dismissed the notion of statehood for Canada, though he acknowledges that Trump often mentions it. Meanwhile, regarding Greenland, Trump’s motivation revolves around security concerns both in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. He noted the strategic significance of Greenland amid the presence of Russian and Chinese vessels in nearby waters. Trump conveyed his belief in the importance of controlling these critical Arctic waterways to ensure both national and international security.

Despite Denmark’s jurisdiction over Greenland and the island’s pursuit of increased autonomy, Trump remains optimistic about the prospects of an eventual acquisition, underscoring its value for U.S. security interests.

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By Popular Demand.
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April 25, 2025
Jack Montgomery
Crime
Immigration

WATCH: AG Bondi Describes How Arrested Judge Snuck Illegal Out of Court to Evade ICE.

PULSE POINTS:

❓ What Happened: Attorney General Pam Bondi has described the circumstances that led to Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agents arresting Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Hannah Dugan on April 25, 2025, for allegedly obstructing U.S. Immigration and Customers Enforcement (ICE) by helping a previously deported illegal alien, Eduardo Flores Ruiz, escape arrest at her courthouse.

👥 Who’s Involved: Judge Hannah Dugan, Attorney General Pam Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel, ICE agents, and Eduardo Flores Ruiz, a Mexican illegal with a domestic abuse charge.

📍 Where & When: Milwaukee County Courthouse, Wisconsin, with the incident occurring on April 18, 2025, and the arrest on April 25, 2025.

💬 Key Quote: Attorney General Pam Bondi stated, “The Judge learns that ICE was outside to get the guy… She comes back into the courtroom… Takes the defendant and the defense attorney back in her chambers… and tells them to leave.”

⚠️ Impact: Dugan’s arrest underscores the Trump administration’s strong stance on immigration enforcement, potentially deterring judicial interference while intensifying federal-local tensions over sanctuary policies.

IN FULL:

The FBI arrested Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Hannah Dugan on April 25, 2025, charging her with obstructing an ICE operation after she allegedly helped an illegal alien evade arrest. The incident, which unfolded on April 18 at the Milwaukee County Courthouse, has intensified the debate over the role of judges in hindering immigration enforcement, with the Trump administration signaling a no-tolerance approach.

Speaking on Fox News, Attorney General Pam Bondi said Judge Dugan intervened when ICE agents arrived to detain Eduardo Flores Ruiz, a Mexican migrant previously deported in 2013 and facing misdemeanor battery charges related to domestic abuse. Bondi detailed the events: “The Judge learns that ICE was outside to get the guy, because he had been deported in 2013, came back into our country, charged with committing these crimes, victim is in court. Judge finds out. She goes out into the hallway. Screams at the immigration officer. She’s furious. Visibly shaken. Upset. Sends them off to talk to the chief judge. She comes back into the courtroom. You’re not going to believe this. Takes the defendant and the defense attorney back in her chambers. Takes them out a private exit and tells them to leave. While the state prosecutor and victims of domestic violence are sitting in the courtroom.”

FBI Director Kash Patel confirmed the arrest, stating that Dugan “intentionally misdirected federal agents away from the subject to be arrested in her courthouse,” allowing Flores Ruiz to initially evade capture. ICE agents later apprehended him after a foot chase, but Patel noted the judge’s actions “created increased danger to the public.” Dugan now faces felony charges of obstruction and concealing a person from arrest, which could lead to up to six years in prison if convicted.

Dugan, elected as a judge in 2016 and endorsed by Milwaukee’s Democratic mayor, previously served as head of Catholic Charities, where she supported refugee resettlement—a background some argue may have influenced her decision to shield Flores Ruiz. The case echoes a 2018 incident in Massachusetts, where a judge faced charges for helping an illegal immigrant escape ICE, though those charges were later dropped.

Democrats have suggested the arrest of a judge by federal authorities signals an authoritarian turn by the Trump administration, but administration officials, including Vice President J.D. Vance, have turned a line previously used against President Trump back against them, stating that “No one is above the law.”

WATCH:

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By Popular Demand.
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April 25, 2025
Christopher Tomlinson
Crime
Media

Gabbard Announces Prosecution Referrals for Intel Leakers Undermining Trump.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated that several intelligence leakers have been referred for criminal prosecution.

👥 Who’s Involved: Tulsi Gabbard, unnamed intelligence officials, Department of Justice (DOJ), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

📍 Where & When: Washington, D.C., April 25.

💬 Key Quote: “We have referred them now to the Department of Justice and the FBI for an official criminal investigation, because these are crimes and people need to be held accountable to put a stop to this.” — Tulsi Gabbard.

⚠️ Impact: The potential prosecutions could discourage further leakers seeking to undermine President Trump’s agenda.

IN FULL:

Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard has announced that several members of the intelligence community suspected of leaking information to the mainstream media have been referred for prosecution. According to Gabbard, the officials purposely attempted to undermine President Donald J. Trump.

“We conducted our own internal investigation. We have referred them now to the Department of Justice and the FBI for an official criminal investigation, because these are crimes and people need to be held accountable to put a stop to this,” Gabbard said on April 25.

She went on to add that the American people voted for President Trump to put an end to the weaponization of intelligence that has undermined trust in intelligence agencies among the American public. Gabbard said the leaks were selective and were sent to “friends in the propaganda media that twisted, manipulated intelligence directly to undermine the president’s policies and his aggressive work to keep the American people safe.”

The DNI did not reveal any names of suspects being referred to prosecutors, but added that additional intelligence community members were also being investigated. She did, however, name the New York Times, Washington Post, and Huffington Post as outlets that received information from the leakers.

Since becoming DNI, Gabbard has cracked down on misbehaviour among intelligence officials, including sacking over 100 members of the NSA over their involvement in sexually explicit chat rooms in February.

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By Popular Demand.
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April 25, 2025
Immigration

Some Foreign Students See Legal Status Restored as ICE Plans New Visa Termination Policies.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: The Trump administration has decided to reinstate the legal status of foreign students whose student visas were recently terminated. This comes as U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) plans to develop a new policy for handling visa termination.

👥 Who’s Involved: The decision involves the Trump administration, ICE, foreign students, the Justice Department (DOJ), and a number of American universities across the country.

📍 Where & When: Affected students across the U.S. began seeing their statuses restored as of Thursday afternoon. The announcement was made during a hearing in the Northern District of California.

💬 Key Quote: DOJ attorney Elizabeth D. Kurlan stated, “ICE still maintains the authority to terminate a SEVIS record for other reasons.”

⚠️ Impact: The reinstatement affects many foreign students, allowing some to regain their status, though their visas remain revoked, causing uncertainty. The termination still appears on records, potentially affecting future visas or green card applications.

IN FULL:

The Trump administration announced on Friday that it would restore the legal status of a number of foreign students whose records were previously terminated. Department of Justice (DOJ) attorney Elizabeth D. Kurlan announced the move during a federal court hearing in the Northern District of California. The DOJ attorney elaborated that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) now plans to introduce a new policy to govern the termination of status records.

This development follows the Trump administration’s previous action of revoking visas and legal statuses of many foreign students, particularly those who participated in pro-Hamas demonstrations or had prior charges such as DUIs. While affected students may see their records reactivated, their visa revocation still appears on their record, and ICE notes it still retains the authority to terminate Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) records.

“ICE still maintains the authority to terminate a SEVIS record for other reasons,” Kurlan said, adding that the reasons include situations “…such as if a student fails to maintain his or her nonimmigrant status after the record is reactivated, or engages in other unlawful activity that would render him or her removable from the United States under the Immigration and Nationality Act.”

A number of foreign students impacted by the revocations saw their statuses updated on Thursday afternoon, almost 24 hours before the DOJ announcement in federal court. However, not all foreign students were reinstated. The University of California, Berkeley, says about half of its affected students have regained their status. Other academic institutions have seen similar mixed updates.

Additionally, the prior terminations still appear on student records, which could negatively impact future immigration processes such as green card applications or requests for other visa statuses.

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By Popular Demand.
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April 25, 2025
Politics

DeSantis Blasts FL House GOP Leaders for Being ‘At War’ With Their Voters.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: Tensions have escalated among Florida Republicans, with Governor Ron DeSantis criticizing state House leadership for defying voter expectations and Speaker Daniel Perez countering with claims of mismanagement.

👥 Who’s Involved: Key figures include Governor Ron DeSantis and Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez.

📍 Where & When: The dispute is ongoing in Florida and has recently been highlighted in statements and social media posts, with the crisis escalating in late April.

💬 Key Quote: DeSantis stated, “…the FL House leadership is at war with the voters who provided the supermajority…” Perez countered that DeSantis “has become the swamp.”

⚠️ Impact: This internal conflict may impact Florida’s political dynamics as Republicans hold significant legislative power in the state.

IN FULL:

Tensions between Republicans in the Florida state legislature and Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) continue to rise, with the latter now publicly chastising the Republican House leadership. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Gov. DeSantis asserted that Republican legislative leaders in the state are moving in opposition to the wishes of voters that granted them a supermajority in the Florida House and Senate.

Earlier this week, DeSantis wrote, “…the FL House leadership is at war with the voters who provided the supermajority in the first place.” Additionally, the Republican governor blasted legislative leaders for adopting a “swamp-centric agenda.” However, House Speaker Daniel Perez (R) contends it is DeSantis who has “become the swamp.”

The National Pulse reported in early April that Gov. DeSantis had blasted Florida Republican legislators for pushing a radical green agenda through the state’s legislature instead of taking up his plan to eliminate Florida’s sales tax. Lawmakers in the Republican legislative supermajority joined with Democrats to push forward a plan creating a far-left state task force charged with developing a framework to implement a carbon sequestration program in the state.

Florida’s term-limit laws have left DeSantis a lame-duck governor, which has emboldened ‘Republican In Name Only’ (RINO) legislators. However, the House Speaker contends that legislative moderates are not the problem, instead pointing the finger at DeSantis himself.

“Unfortunately, what we’ve seen in Florida is a Governor who’s turned into exactly what he promised to fight—he’s become the swamp,” Perez said, adding: “His latest attacks are nothing more than a distraction from the gross financial mismanagement happening under his watch. We’re talking about thousands of missing state vehicles, $160 million unaccounted for at AHCA, and a growing list of problems across agencies and boards—all controlled by the Governor.”

The Florida Republican quasi-civil war could jeopardize DeSantis’s tax reform efforts and stoke voter anger, placing the Republican legislative supermajority at risk.

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By Popular Demand.
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April 25, 2025
NatSec
Science

Seismologists Suggest Earthquakes May Mask Secret Nuclear Tests.

PULSE POINTS:

❓What Happened: A study suggests that seismic signals from earthquakes can obscure the detection of clandestine underground nuclear tests.

👥 Who’s Involved: The review was conducted by Joshua Carmichael and his team at Los Alamos National Laboratory, with the findings published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

📍 Where & When: The study draws on data from the Nevada National Security Site, highlighting global implications. It has been published in a recent edition of the journal.

💬 Key Quote: “Background seismicity in regions where there’s any sort of seismicity at all is going to measurably and substantially reduce the probability that we can detect signals from an underground explosion at a test site,” said Joshua Carmichael.

⚠️ Impact: The study raises concerns for international monitoring of nuclear tests, potentially affecting compliance verification of treaties such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

IN FULL:

New research suggests that seismic signals from natural earthquakes may obscure the detection of underground nuclear tests, raising concerns for international monitoring efforts. Scientist Joshua Carmichael and colleagues from Los Alamos National Laboratory, in a review of data published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, found a significant decrease in the accuracy of detection of nuclear tests occurring during or just after a seismic event and even at substantial distances from one another. 

The study evaluated advanced signal detectors capable of identifying explosions with high accuracy. It found a significant reduction in this success rate when explosion signals overlapped with earthquake waveforms occurring within a 100-second timeframe and within a 250-kilometer (or roughly 150-mile) radius. The Los Alamos National Laboratory review referred to how these overlapping waveforms “obfuscate the ability of even the most sensitive digital signal detectors” to identify explosions, potentially impacting global treaty compliance monitoring.

“Background seismicity in regions where there’s any sort of seismicity at all is going to measurably and substantially reduce the probability that we can detect signals from an underground explosion at a test site,” Carmichael, a Geophysical Explosion Monitoring (GEM) team member at the laboratory, said.

This investigation counters earlier findings from a 2012 report that downplayed the potential for earthquake signals to mask explosions. The national security implications are serious, particularly for monitoring adherence to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty that prohibits all explosive nuclear testing for all military and civilian purposes.

The review also indicates that regional seismic activity, particularly in areas like North Korea, could complicate detection efforts. North Korea’s nuclear testing activities over the past two decades, noted to be “off the charts,” highlight the urgency of accurate detection mechanisms. An increase in low-magnitude seismicity around test sites further complicates monitoring, with potential detection rates plummeting from 92 percent to 16 percent in cases of repetitive seismic events.

The research proposes that the industry may be undercounting natural seismic occurrences embedded in earthquake swarms and aftershock sequences, complicating the monitoring of both natural and anthropogenic seismic events.

Image by Phil LaCombe.

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