An average taken among polls conducted by established pollsters over September and October shows former President Trump holding a commanding seven point lead among independent voters over the Democrat incumbent, President Joe Biden. Established pollsters like the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia to Quinnipiac to ABC/Washington Post showed Trump leading Biden anywhere from 3-points to 15-points among independents.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: INDEPENDENTS (Sept/Oct)@Center4Politics
Trump 51%
Biden 49%
.
NPR/Marist
Trump 49%
Biden 43%
.
Fox News Poll
Trump 48%
Biden 40%
.
ABC/WP
Trump 52%
Biden 39%
.
CBS News
Trump 57%
Biden 42%
.
Quinnipiac
Biden 46%
Trump 41%Average
(R) Trump 50% (+7)
(D) Biden 43% pic.twitter.com/7BPjeUGwcT— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 18, 2023
The recent polling data disproves a key talking point pushed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. Since announcing his presidential bid in May, DeSantis and campaign surrogates have repeatedly argued that former President Trump cannot win over independent voters, a key block of voters needed to defeat Joe Biden.
“At the end of the day, people do want to win, and you can’t win with just Republican voters. I think we showed in Florida that if you want a big victory you’ve got to win independent voters,” DeSantis said during a Fox News interview in July. “You’ve got to win people who haven’t voted for our party in the last several cycles. I’ve shown I can do that, and I think we can do it nationally.” DeSantis campaign spokeswoman and registered foreign agent for a top Zelensky ally, Christina Pushaw, said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that even if Democrats or independents agree with some of Trump policy ideas, they still won’t vote for him.
Despite the DeSantis campaign’s insistence, polling continues to show independent voters flocking to Trump, who is by-and-far the likely Republican presidential nominee. On-the-other-hand, DeSantis himself has seen his numbers slide among independent voters, further undermining his already collapsing candidacy.