Democratic Senator of West Virginia Joe Manchin announced in an interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker his potential consideration for running for president as a third-party candidate in 2024.
Manchin has previously skirted questions on presidential aspirations. Despite acknowledging that there’s ample time for a third-party candidate, he maintained, “It’s not about me.” However, his participation in a July event hosted by the centrist group “No Labels” did raise questions about his potential White House campaign.
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He suggested that President Joe Biden had been “pushed too far to the left” on policies ranging from engird to migration, citing the unprecedented levels of migration at the U.S.-Mexico border. He also said he does not believe Biden and Harris are in the strongest position to defeat former President Donald Trump.
“I’m going to do everything in my power to make sure, to mobilize that moderate, sensible, commonsense middle,” he explained.
“The business of politics has gotten so big because the business model is a Democrat business and a Republican business and it’s really forgotten about the people to a certain extent,” he added.
This comes as his most explicit potential presidential ambition statement, following last week’s declaration that he would not pursue reelection in 2024. This decision sets the stage for an almost certain switch of his seat to a Republican holder, sparking further speculation about his potential presidential bid.
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❓What Happened: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is being urged to relax its export restrictions on rare earth materials, which are essential for various industries. Implemented in response to U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s imposition of tariffs on China, the controls have disrupted production in the U.S. and Europe.
👥 Who’s Involved: Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, U.S. officials, European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, European Association of Automotive Suppliers (CLEPA).
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📍 Where & When: Discussions took place on the sidelines of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) conference in Paris on Tuesday. Restrictions were initially imposed by China in April.
💬 Key Quote: “I informed my Chinese counterpart about the alarming situation in the European car industry… rare earths and permanent magnets are absolutely essential for industrial production,” said Maros Sefcovic, the EU Trade Commissioner, underlining the impact of the CCP export restrictions across the West.
⚠️ Impact: Industries in the U.S. and Europe, including automotive and defense, face potential shutdowns due to rare earth shortages. Prices for restricted materials have skyrocketed, with some increasing four to ten times their previous cost.
IN FULL:
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has not lifted restrictions on rare earth minerals exports despite agreeing to do so during a tariff truce deal with President Donald J. Trump. U.S. officials are accusing Beijing of violating a trade agreement reached in Geneva, Switzerland. U.S. manufacturers have reported significant delays in securing rare earth shipments, with some suppliers demanding sensitive information, such as photos of end-user facilities, to complete applications. A U.S.-based rare earth trader noted that materials are now being sold at up to ten times their previous prices due to shortages.
The impact extends beyond the U.S., with the European Union (EU) urging China to ease export controls amid severe disruptions to industrial production across Europe. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic raised the issue during a meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on the sidelines of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) conference in Paris. “I informed my Chinese counterpart about the alarming situation in the European car industry… rare earths and permanent magnets are absolutely essential for industrial production,” Sefcovic told reporters on Wednesday.
China, which processes 90 percent of the world’s rare earth materials, introduced stricter export licensing requirements earlier this year in response to tariff measures imposed by President Trump, covering seven types of rare earth minerals and several types of magnets. Since then, only about a quarter of the submitted export license applications have been approved, according to the European Association of Automotive Suppliers (CLEPA). The group warned that the restrictions are already causing production shutdowns in Europe’s supplier sectors.
Sefcovic proposed a streamlined, annual licensing system to reduce delays and alleviate the strain on industries. However, no immediate resolution was reached, with both sides planning to meet again to reconcile discrepancies in export data.
China’s foreign ministry defended the restrictions, stating they are “in line with common international practices” and not targeted at specific nations. Meanwhile, industries reliant on these materials continue to face mounting challenges as they scramble to secure alternative supplies.
❓What Happened: Texas has decided to end in-state tuition rates for illegal immigrants.
👥 Who’s Involved: Texas state officials, Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Department of Justice, and the Trump administration.
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📍 Where & When: Texas, lawsuit filed on Wednesday.
💬 Key Quote: President Donald J. Trump issued orders to prevent “benefits or preferential treatments” for illegal immigrants.
⚠️ Impact: The decision could affect undocumented students and out-of-state American students seeking more favorable tuition policies.
IN FULL:
Texas has agreed to halt its policy of offering in-state tuition rates to illegal immigrants following a legal challenge from the Department of Justice (DOJ). The federal lawsuit, filed on Wednesday, alleges that the practice unfairly discriminates against out-of-state American students by granting financial advantages to illegals.
The lawsuit challenges a long-standing Texas education policy, claiming it violates federal law by prioritizing illegal immigrants over U.S. citizens from other states. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, in response, filed a joint motion with the Trump administration to formally end the law.
This move aligns with broader efforts by the Trump administration to tightenimmigration policies and prevent benefits for those residing in the country unlawfully. President Trump has issued two executive orders aimed at curbing preferential treatment for illegal immigrants, emphasizing the importance of fairness in public resource allocation.
The decision could have wide-ranging implications for both illegal alien students who have relied on in-state tuition rates and out-of-state American students who have contested the policy as discriminatory.
Further legal proceedings are expected as the case develops.
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President Donald Trump signed a proclamation restricting immigration from nearly 20 countries deemed high-risk due to terrorism ties and visa overstays.
The details: Trump’s proclamation includes 19 countries—twelve with a full ban and seven with partial bans.
Partial ban: Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, Venezuela
Why? When Trump returned to office in January, he issued Executive Order 14161, which ordered U.S. agencies to assess security risks from high-risk nations. They found that the 19 banned countries have:
large-scale presence of terrorists
high rates of visa overstays
an inability to verify identities
poor record-keeping of criminal histories
Some exemptions: The order carves out some exemptions for green card holders, existing visa holders, and national interest cases.
Zoom out: In a video message announcing the travel ban, Trump cited the recent terrorist attack in Boulder, Colorado, by an illegal alien who overstayed his visa in 2023.
Real talk from G: Trump also said, “We will not let what happened in Europe happen in America.” What happened in Europe? Mass, unvetted migration from the Middle East and Africa has led to daily occurrences of stabbings, vehicular homicide, and rape by foreigners.
❓What Happened: Following a court ruling declaring rejection of illegals at the border unlawful, German police fear they may face prosecution for carrying out their duties.
👤Who’s Involved: German federal police, Berlin Administrative Court, federal police union chairman
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Andreas Roßkopf, and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt.
🧾Key Quote: “The directive must be implemented, but the liability of colleagues must be explicitly removed in the end,” said Roßkopf.
⚠️Fallout: The ruling could halt Germany’s belated attempts to regain some control of its borders, as it remains a major destination for asylum seekers in Europe.
📌Significance: Germany could face yet more mass migration, which has already massively shifted the demographics of the country and is producing enormous strain on social systems.
IN FULL:
Police in one of Europe’s largest countries now fear they may be subject to prosecution for enforcing border policies after a court declared that the deportation of several Somali nationals at the border was illegal. The Administrative Court of Berlin in Germany declared that the rejection of three Somalis at a border control at Frankfurt train station was illegal, contrary to the government’s new border control policy.
Federal police union chairman Andreas Roßkopf now fears that police could personally face prosecution for enforcing the border controls. “Of course, it is a case-by-case decision at first, but it remains to be noted that these are cases that we have every day, and so there is now a certain uncertainty among colleagues,” he said. “The directive must be implemented, but the liability of colleagues must be explicitly removed in the end,” Roßkopf added.
German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt ordered stricter border controls to be implemented in May, but the ruling could undo those orders. Others in the federal government have suggested the policies may be reworked to comply with the ruling and European Union (EU) laws.
Germany has long been the major destination in Europe for asylum seekers, although this year it appeared that France had surpassed Germany for the number of overall applications. Before the more restrictive border policy, Germany saw several mass stabbing attacks carried out by asylum seekers from countries like Syria and Afghanistan. The country has seen several terrorist attacks as well, many of which have been committed by asylum seekers who have arrived since the 2015 migration crisis.
Migration has also rapidly changed the country’s demographics, with around one-third of young adults in Germany now coming from migration backgrounds.
❓What Happened: Pew Research data shows an estimated 50 percent of liberal women under the age of 30 say they have a mental health condition.
👥 Who’s Involved: Pew Research, Nate Silver, young Democrat women, the Democratic Party, and male voters.
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📍 Where & When: The Pew data is from 2020 but has resurfaced as part of an ongoing debate about the Democratic Party’s collapsing support among male voters, with Silver posting about the phenomenon on June 2, 2025.
💬 Key Quote: “I think an underrated factor in the ‘how can Democrats win back young men’ debate is the effects of personality, which differ especially among younger voters,” said election guru and statistician Nate Silver.
⚠️ Impact: Silver and others point to the neurotic and anxious nature of women in the Democratic Party as being partially responsible for the alienation of male voters and believe party leaders should cater less to the demographic in future elections.
IN FULL:
Around 50 percent of young, liberal women under 30 say they have been diagnosed with a mental health condition, according to data from Pew Research. The statistic has emerged as a critical inflection point in the post-2024 election autopsy of the Democratic Party and its cratering support among male voters, especially young black and Hispanic men.
Election polling guru and statistician Nate Silver has pointed to the Pew data on mental health, broken down by gender and partisan affiliation, as evidence that the Democratic Party’s penchant for catering to its predominantly female and progressive political base has played a significant role in its loss of male political support. Silver, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), contends that the Democratic Party has come to reflect the neurosis and anxiety expressed by its young female voting base, which alienates and turns off most men.
“I think an underrated factor in the ‘how can Democrats win back young men’ debate is the effects of personality, which differ especially among younger voters,” Silver writes. In a post on Substack, Silver elaborates further, arguing that Democratic efforts to police speech and appearance of being more risk-averse likely turned off male voters. He adds that “some of Democrats’ problem with young men is that they’re seen as what in the poker world we’d call ‘nits’: neurotic, risk-averse, sticklers for the rules, always up in everyone’s business.”
The Pew data also shows that among moderate and conservative women, less than 30 percent say they’ve been diagnosed with a mental health condition. For men of all partisan identifications, the number is even lower.
❓What Happened: The Trump administration has notified Columbia University’s accreditor of violations of Title IV, threatening its accreditation status.
👥 Who’s Involved: The U.S. Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR), the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office for Civil Rights (HHS OCR), and Columbia University.
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📍 Where & When: Columbia University, violations cited since October 7, 2023; announcement made June 4, 2025.
💬 Key Quote: “Columbia University acted with deliberate indifference towards the harassment of Jewish students, thereby violating Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964,” according to the Education Department.
⚠️ Impact: Columbia University’s accreditation is under threat, and the school faces scrutiny for its handling of alleged anti-Semitic harassment.
IN FULL:
The Trump administration announced on June 4 that Columbia University’s accreditation status is under review following alleged violations of federal civil rights laws. According to the U.S. Department of Education, the university may no longer meet standards set by its accrediting body due to its handling of harassment claims.
In a press release, the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) and the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office for Civil Rights (HHS OCR) stated that Columbia University “acted with deliberate indifference towards the harassment of Jewish students, thereby violating Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.”
The agencies determined these actions violated Title VI, which prohibits discrimination based on race, color, or national origin in programs receiving federal funding.
The violations reportedly date back to October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a terrorist attack on Israel, killing over a thousand and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Education Department claims that since then, Columbia University has failed to address incidents of anti-Semitic harassment on its campus adequately.
The department further informed the university’s accreditor that Columbia “no longer appears to meet the Commission’s accreditation standards,” raising concerns about the institution’s compliance with Title IV, which governs federal student aid programs.
This development could have serious implications for Columbia University, including its ability to maintain accreditation and access federal funding. The case highlights growing attention on how universities handle issues of discrimination and harassment, particularly in the context of rising anti-Semitism.
Columbia has become infamous for allowing anti-Semitic protests on campus in the wake of Hamas’s terror attack on October 7 and the subsequent Israeli siege of Gaza that followed. In April of last year, an anti-Israel mob barricaded the university’s Dean’s office in support of the Palestinians. In March of the year, the administration of President Donald J. Trump moved to revoke the visas of two Columbia University attending Hamas supporters, including one found advocating for violence and terrorism.
The new move against Columbia mirrors similar actions the Trump White House has taken against Harvard University, which are now being litigated in federal court.
❓What Happened: NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has urged alliance members to increase defense spending, suggesting the current two percent GDP target is insufficient.
👥 Who’s Involved: NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, British Defence Secretary John Healey, and former U.S. President Donald J. Trump.
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📍 Where & When: Press conference on Wednesday; NATO leaders to meet in The Hague later this month.
💬 Key Quote: “The expectation is that on the European side of NATO and the Canadian side of NATO, if we think that we can keep ourselves safe sticking with the two percent, forget it.” – Mark Rutte.
⚠️ Impact: NATO nations may face increased pressure to raise their defense budgets, with potential calls for spending as high as five percent of GDP.
IN FULL:
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has called on alliance members to significantly increase defense spending, arguing that the current two percent GDP target is inadequate for maintaining security. Speaking at a press conference on June 4, Rutte emphasized the need for European NATO members and Canada to contribute more, aligning their efforts with the United States, which currently spends around 3.4 percent of its GDP on defense.
“The expectation is that on the European side of NATO and the Canadian side of NATO, if we think that we can keep ourselves safe sticking with the two percent, forget it,” Rutte stated. He warned that sticking to the current target could leave member nations in “great difficulty” within the next three to five years.
The former Dutch prime minister is reportedly advocating for a new spending target of 3.5 percent of GDP on military expenditures, with an additional 1.5 percent allocated to defense-related measures. The issue is expected to be a central topic when NATO leaders convene in The Hague later this month, where a new “investment plan” will be discussed.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to raise British defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by April 2027, with a longer-term goal of reaching three percent in the next parliament, potentially extending to 2034. However, Starmer and Defence Secretary John Healey are under scrutiny over how this target will be achieved.
Healey defended the United Kingdom’s contributions to NATO, citing recent investments. “We’ve published a defense review that has NATO at its heart,” he claimed, highlighting £4 billion allocated for drone technology and £1 billion for laser weapons development. He also noted the United Kingdom’s unique role in contributing to nuclear deterrence for the alliance.
U.S. President Donald J. Trump and his NATO representative, Matthew Whitaker, have previously called for alliance members to commit to a five percent GDP defense spending target. This push underscores ongoing debates about equitable burden-sharing within NATO, where the U.S. pulls the lion’s share of the military weight.
Trump has long advocated for NATO members to spend more on their militaries. However, few countries even meet prior spending commitments, let alone potential new ones that may be even higher.
Image via the Ukrainian Presidency.
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❓What Happened: The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) says its analysis of President Donald J. Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” finds the legislation introduces historic fiscal reforms, achieving $1.7 trillion in mandatory savings and reducing the deficit by $1.407 trillion. This analysis contradicts a fiscal score released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that claims the bill would increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion.
👥 Who’s Involved: President Donald J. Trump, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), OMB Director Russ Vought, Elon Musk, and the U.S. Congress.
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📍 Where & When: The OMB’s top-line numbers were revealed by the agency’s director, Russ Vought, on Wednesday, June 4, after the CBO released its updated fiscal score earlier in the day.
💬 Key Quote: “Even the partisan CBO admits the deficit will be slashed by at least $500 billion over the next ten years,” the Trump White House said in a fact sheet.
⚠️ Impact: According to the Trump White House, the bill enacts permanent savings, extends tax cuts, allocates funds for border security, and sets the stage for further deficit reductions of $6.6 trillion over the next decade.
IN FULL:
President Donald J. Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” has been revealed to deliver unprecedented fiscal reforms, achieving nearly $1.7 trillion in mandatory savings, according to Office of Management and Budget (OMB) data acknowledged by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This figure marks the highest level of mandatory savings in U.S. history, surpassing reductions achieved by similar reconciliation bills in 2005, 1997, 1993, and 1990 when adjusted for inflation.
Russ Vought, the director of the OMB, notes that the budget reconciliation bill enacts permanent changes to the law, ensuring that these savings extend far into the future. While critics, including Elon Musk, have claimed the bill increases spending and adds to the deficit, Vought argues these assertions have been countered by the facts.
“OMB just reviewed the new CBO score of the One Big Beautiful bill. It confirms what we knew about the bill at House passage. The bill REDUCES deficits by $1.4 trillion over ten years when you adjust for CBO’s one big gimmick–not using a realistic current policy baseline,” Vought wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday, adding: “It includes $1.7 trillion in mandatory savings, the most in history. If you care about deficits and debt, this bill dramatically improves the fiscal picture.”
Vought and others in the Trump administration argue that the CBO’s projections of higher deficits are based on the assumption that President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts will expire. This assumption, they contend, creates a false policy baseline and warps the bill’s true fiscal impact. Additionally, the Trump White House notes that the CBO itself forecasts that President Trump’s tariffs will reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade.
Further, the White House officials state that when the legislation’s economic effects are factored in along with tariff revenue and deregulation, the overall impact will be a total deficit reduction of $6.6 trillion over the next ten years.
The analysis contradicts claims by former Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) frontman, Elon Musk, who slammed the bill on Tuesday, calling it a “disgusting abomination” and accusing lawmakers of saddling Americans with unsustainable debt. Musk’s turn against the Trump White House has set Republicans on Capitol Hill on the defensive just as the reconciliation legislation begins to work its way through the Senate.
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❓What Happened: The U.S. Army has announced it has already achieved its 2025 recruitment goals, four months ahead of schedule.
👥 Who’s Involved: The U.S. Army, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, President Donald J. Trump.
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📍 Where & When: Driscoll announced the recruitment numbers through an article in the Wall Street Journal on June 3.
💬 Key Quote: “From the White House and Congress to the Pentagon, our soldiers are a priority. This is only the beginning. As more Americans learn about the Army’s mission and legacy, I hope more will choose to serve.” — Army Secretary Driscoll.
⚠️ Impact: The reversal comes after plummeting recruitment numbers under the former Biden regime and proves Hegseth and President Trump’s stances to be popular among those who want to serve.
IN FULL:
The U.S. Army has announced it has already achieved its recruitment goals for 2025, four months ahead of expectations, noting that 61,000 new recruits have joined. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll made the announcement on June 3, making it the first time in over ten years that the Army had met its recruitment goal by the start of June.
“From the White House and Congress to the Pentagon, our soldiers are a priority. This is only the beginning. As more Americans learn about the Army’s mission and legacy, I hope more will choose to serve,” Driscoll said.
Under the prior Biden regime and former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the Army struggled to recruit new troops, focusing instead on diversity, equality, and inclusion (DEI) policies. In 2022, the Army missed recruitment goals by 25 percent, while the Air Force missed recruitment goals in 2023 by 10 percent, the most in more than 20 years.
As early as April, however, recruitment was clearly surging under President Donald J. Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with all branches noting 100 percent or more of their recruitment goals achieved. “These recruiting numbers don’t surprise me… one bit. They’re a reflection of a yearning from the American public, of young people to be proud of their country,” Hegseth said.
Hegseth has focused on revitalizing the “warrior ethos” among the Armed Forces and has already moved to scrap DEI policies, restore fitness standards, and reenlist those who refused to take the COVID-19 vaccines under the Biden regime.
“Everything starts and ends with warriors, from training to the battlefield. We are leaving wokeness and weakness behind. No more pronouns. No more climate change obsession. No more emergency vaccine mandates. No more dudes in dresses, we’re done with that shit,” Hegseth said.
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❓What Happened: Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough is set to evaluate the House-passed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” for compliance with Senate rules under the Byrd Rule.
👥 Who’s Involved: President Donald J. Trump, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD).
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📍 Where & When: U.S. Senate, June 2025.
⚠️ Impact: Key provisions of Trump’s bill, including those limiting federal court powers and restricting Medicaid funds for abortion clinics, could be struck down, potentially weakening the legislation.
IN FULL:
President Donald J. Trump‘s budgetreconciliation bill, which implements and funds a large part of the America First leader’s second-term agenda, is beginning to work its way through the United States Senate. However, the legislation, also known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” will face its most perilous test from one of the Senate’s non-elected officials—Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough.
Serving as the Senate Parliamentarian since 2o12, MacDonough will be tasked with evaluating a bevy of points-of-order raised by Senate Democrats and other opponents of the bill, including Senator Rand Paul (R-KY). These points of order will challenge the legislation’s key provisions on several factors that could disqualify their inclusion, including whether the provision reduces non-discretionary (mandatory) spending, increases the deficit after the 10-year budget window, or if a policy provision is nongermine to the budget change.
The budget reconciliation process gives the Senate Parliamentarian tremendous power over legislation, despite being an unelected official. While the presiding officer of the Senate—technically the Vice President, but in practice usually the Senate Majority Leader—can override any ruling by the Senate Parliamentarian, such instances are beyond rare. The most notable occurrence was in 1975, when Vice President Nelson Rockefeller attempted to overrule the Senate Parliamentarian regarding Senate procedural rules. This led both the Republican and Democrat leaders in the Senate to hold an emergency meeting, create a compromise ruling, and circumvent Rockefeller so as to avoid setting any concrete precedent of the presiding officer actually overruling the Senate Parliamentarian.
WHO IS MACDONOUGH?
Senate Parliamentarians are almost always selected from the Office of the Parliamentarian to ensure continuity. The office itself was only created in 1935. The current Senator, Elizabeth MacDonough, has served since 2012, when she was elevated to the role by then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).
Despite being appointed by Reid, MacDonough has been critical of the late Nevada Democrat’s 2013 decision to use a procedural maneuver to alter Senate rules and use the so-called “nuclear option” to abolish the filibuster for lower federal court nominations. MacDonough, along with Republican Senators at the time, warned that setting the precedent could later be used to end the filibuster for Supreme Court nominations—a prediction which came to pass in 2017.
MacDonough has received high praise from Senators on both sides of the aisle but has repeatedly drawn the ire of progressive Democrats by ruling against some of their more far-reaching policy changes that they’ve tried to include in past reconciliation bills. The Senate Parliamentarian’s rulings on former President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan—a reconciliation bill—saw House progressives, including Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN), demand that MacDonough be fired. Notably, MacDonough ruled against the inclusion of a $15 an hour minimum wage provision, and most significantly, determined that the inclusion of a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the legislation violated the Byrd Rule, stating, “changing the law to clear the way to (Legal Permanent Resident) status is tremendous and enduring policy change that dwarfs its budgetary impact.”
OVERRULE OR FIRE?
While Senate Republicans currently insist they will not resort to extreme measures should McDonough rule against provisions in the reconciliation bill, they’ve already used a procedural move last month to prevent the Senate Parliamentarian from ruling on a separate piece of legislation. In May, the Senate overturned California’s electric vehicle mandates using a series of procedural votes and then an expedited final vote under the Congressional Review Act, effectively ending the debate and holding a final vote before the Senate Parliamentarian could rule on the matter. While this end-around maneuver worked for a single subject and relatively uncomplicated measure, such a procedural move will not work with the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.”
Regarding the reconciliation bill, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has insisted, “We’re not going there,” when asked whether he or any other Republican acting as the presiding chair would overrule determinations made by the Senate Parliamentarian under the Byrd Rule. In essence, the Senate Republicans appear to be signaling that they will not overturn past precedent nor use any controversial procedural measures to reduce McDonough’s role in the process.
However, two wrinkles could change the current state of affairs. Namely, the constitutional presiding officer of the United States Senate is actually Vice President J.D. Vance. Should Vance decide to arrive at the Senate and assume his constitutional role, there is not much Sen. Thune or other members can do to prevent him from overruling the Senate Parliamentarian, outside of holding a vote to override the Vice President’s decision. This scenario would be similar to the 1975 legislative involving then-Vice President Rockefeller.
Secondly, if MacDonough’s rulings are seen by Sen. Thune or the Senate Republicans as a whole as being too far afield, we could see a situation like 2001 when then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) fired then-Senate Parliamentarian Robert Dove over a series of rulings against Republicans on reconciliation and other budget measures. While Thune might not be willing to overrule MacDonough directly, should the Senate Parliamentarian act too partisan with her Byrd Rule determinations, the Senate Majority Leader is well within his right to fire her.
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