The Commonwealth of Virginia has moved from “Lean Biden” to “Toss Up” in the latest 2024 Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map. With its 13 electoral votes up for grabs, Virginia could become a critical state in the 2024 presidential election. A Donald J. Trump win in the state would likely signify a Republican landslide election.
Former President Trump came close to retaking Virginia in 2016, narrowly losing the state to Hillary Clinton. However, continued shifting demographics in the state—combined with voter anger over inflation, high housing costs, and rampant illegal immigration—appear to have made the state competitive again. A recent Fox News poll has shown a collapse in black support for Joe Biden in the state. In 2020, Biden won 81 percent of the state’s black vote. However, in the latest survey, the 81-year-old Democrat incumbent is polling at just 48 percent among black voters.
Meanwhile, Trump has surged in the state among white voters, even regaining ground among those in the demographic with a college education. The latter data point is important as it signals the former Republican President is likely competitive in areas like Henrico County, a wealthy suburban area of Richmond. Henrico is considered a bellwether in the state.
Republicans have struggled in Virginia ever since the state voted for Barack Obama in 20008. Prior to that election, the state had been a fairly reliable Republican bastion. However, the increasing size of the federal government, a burgeoning defense contractor industry, and declining populations in the more rural South-Western Virginia region meant the state very quickly shifted partisan political columns and has become a reliable Democrat state in federal elections. Republicans do remain competitive on the state level.
This just in: Virginia and its 13 electoral votes has moved to a Toss Up. https://t.co/ZuzasZJRHf pic.twitter.com/vze2juBNEg
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 7, 2024