A snap poll following Tuesday evening’s 2024 presidential debate between former President Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris reveals that a near majority of respondents believe Trump was the victor. The survey, conducted by the Democracy Institute, found 45 percent of respondents believe Trump won the contest. Meanwhile, 34 percent say Harris was the better candidate. Just 21 percent say they felt the debate ended in a draw.
The telephone-based poll surveyed 600 likely American voters and was put in the field immediately following Tuesday’s debate hosted by ABC News. Despite respondents by and large believing Trump came out on top in the debate, it appears the contest did little to change the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race.
When those polled were asked whether Harris’s debate performance changed their opinion of the candidate, 53 percent said it made no difference in their likelihood to vote for the Democratic Party nominee. Additionally, only 24 percent said Harris’s performance made it more likely they would vote for her, while 23 percent said it made it less likely.
Conversely, 51 percent said the debate did not impact their likelihood of voting for former President Trump. Meanwhile, 27 percent reported being more likely to vote for the Republican nominee. Just 22 percent said they’re less inclined to support Trump.
For several weeks, polling has shown the 2024 presidential race in a statistical tie, with Trump or Harris having a slight edge in key swing states. Early data, like the Democracy Institute survey, suggests the Tuesday debate will have little impact on propelling one candidate ahead of the other just before early voting begins in several states.
Patrick Basham, the Director of the Democracy Institute, was one of the few to get it right in 2016 with Trump and Brexit in the UK.