Vice President Kamala Harris has the weakest advantage among Latinos and union households of any Democratic candidate in multiple election cycles. An NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll shows the 59-year-old Californian with an advantage of just 14 points, down from 36 points at the same juncture in the election cycle in 2020, 50 points in 2016, and 39 points in 2012.
Notably, Joe Biden’s Latino advantage on Election Day in 2020 was 33 points lower than where his campaign stood in polling prior to votes being cast. Hillary Clinton also underperformed, at 38 points. Additionally, Democrats fear polls generally undercount support for former President Donald J. Trump.
Harris’s polling on particular issues will also concern her party. Trump leads the Democratic Party nominee on the economy, inflation, cost of living, and securing the border. The economy and the cost of living rate as Latinos’ top issues.
Separate polling on union households also shows Harris in dire straits. CNN host Harry Enten notes Trump is up by 31 percent among trade school graduates, with Harris’s overall advantage among union households standing at just nine points—more than halving Biden‘s 19-point advantage and lower even than Clinton’s historically low 2016 numbers.
In recent weeks, there have been several bleak snapshots regarding working-class support for Harris; for instance, the Teamsters union is declining to endorse a candidate for the first time in almost 30 years, and internal polling shows that almost 60 percent of members support Trump.
Trump has more working class support than any GOP presidential candidate in a generation. He’s on track for the best performance among union voters in 40 years. He’s up 31 points among trade school grads.
He’s doing 17 pts better among nonwhite non-college voters than in 2020. pic.twitter.com/0ObrWWNzYf
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2024