Psephologist Nate Silver believes Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to back former President Donald J. Trump is the most significant public endorsement of the 2024 election. According to Silver, Kennedy’s endorsement has fueled a significant shift in voter support for Trump, possibly costing his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris around half a percentage point nationally.
Conversely, Silver notes that popstar Taylor Swift’s decision to back Harris has not had a similar effect. He says he’s observed no substantial change in polling for Harris since Swift posted her endorsement of the Democratic Party nominee on Instagram immediately following the September 10 presidential debate. The statistician and election modeler—speaking on his Risky Business podcast—claims Swift’s 2020 endorsement of Joe Biden made her decision to support Harris predictable for voters, meaning those likely to be swayed were already backing the Democratic Party nominee.
While most national polling shows the election between Trump and Harris in a dead heat, the Democrats are fretting that they may face a similar electoral environment as they did in 2016, when most pollsters missed Trump’s victory. Among the concerns for Harris is her lagging support among young voters—a demographic that many thought Swift’s endorsement would help boost. However, a recent survey found that Harris currently has just over half as much support among young people as Biden during the 2020 election.
Meanwhile, data released by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio shows Kennedy voters breaking for Trump by a two-to-one margin over Harris in seven critical battleground states. With several states only being decided by just tens-of-thousand of voters in 2020, Kennedy voters could be pivotal to a Trump victory.