Polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign for the White House is faltering with just over a month before the November presidential election. A survey conducted between September 29 and October 1 by Emerson College Polling indicates the Democratic Party presidential nominee is falling well shy of President Joe Biden’s margins in the 2020 election.
In a head-to-head matchup, Harris sits at 50 percent to President Donald J. Trump’s 48 percent. With a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, the Emerson poll essentially confirms Trump and Harris are in a dead heat. Biden’s margin over Trump in the 2020 popular vote was four and a half points.
Polling data analyzed by FiveThirtyEight illustrates an even steeper decline in Harris’ advantage compared to Biden’s, placing her current lead at approximately 2.8 percentage points, in contrast to Biden’s 7.4-point lead at this juncture in 2020. RealClearPolitics’ aggregation indicates an even greater difference between Biden’s and Harris’s leads over Trump, with Biden holding a 7.8-point lead in the Fall of 2020 versus Harris’s 2.2 points now.
In the battleground states where election outcomes are often decided the races appear exceptionally close. For instance, North Carolina and Pennsylvania show statistical ties, while Trump holds a minor edge in Arizona and Georgia. Conversely, Harris shows a slight advantage in Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
As in the 2016 election, Trump holds a significant advantage among non-college-educated and white working-class voters. Recent data released by the Teamsters Union shows the former Republican president holding about 60 percent support among the union’s rank-and-file members.