Around 29 million Americans have now cast early votes, either in-person or by mail. Data company TargetSmart reports that 43 percent of early voters so far are registered Democrats, 39 percent are Republicans, and 18 percent are not aligned with the two major parties.
While early voting does favor the Democrats slightly overall, other sources indicate Vice President Kamala Harris’s party is doing a worse job turning out supporters in battleground states than in previous elections, while Republicans are turning out much stronger for former President Donald J. Trump.
CNN—using data from Catalist, election officials, and Edison Research—notes that at this point in the 2020 election, early votes in Pennsylvania were 71 percent Democratic and 20 percent Republican. This year, the Democrats have dropped to 61 percent, and the GOP has risen to 29 percent.
Meanwhile, the Democratic advantage has vanished in North Carolina. In 2020, they led the GOP on 40 percent to 28 percent; now, the parties are tied at 34 percent.
Conversely, the GOP now leads early voting in Arizona and Nevada, accounting for 42 percent and 38 percent of early voters, respectively. Democrats sit at 36 percent in both states. At this point in 2020, the Democrats led Republicans in both states, 42 percent to 34 percent and 44 percent to 33 percent.
Local media in Nevada report an “unheard of” advantage for Republicans in early in-person voting, and the GOP is also said to be ahead in mail-in votes—traditionally a Democrat strength—in North Carolina. Early voting is also taking place in Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but information on the party registration of early voters in those swing states is not available.
