Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris can no longer count on winning in New Hampshire, as polls indicate the state is now in play ahead of next Tuesday’s election. RealClearPolitics has classified New Hampshire as a toss-up state, moving it from its previous “leans Democrat” status.
The latest New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll shows a competitive race, with President Donald J. Trump holding a narrow lead of 50.2 percent to Harris‘ 49.8 percent.
The change in New Hampshire’s forecast implies that more than 100 Electoral College votes are now up for grabs. Although it only contributes four Electoral College votes, New Hampshire could emerge as a potential key player in determining the election.
In recent elections, New Hampshire has consistently voted Democrat. The state went for Joe Biden in 2020 by 7.2 points and more narrowly for Hillary Clinton in 2016. This trend might be tested in 2024 as the Trump campaign views the state as winnable. Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s campaign national press secretary, mentioned Harris is on the defensive in New Hampshire.
Before the latest New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica data, Harris led every poll as the Democratic nominee.
Early voting suggests a very close race between Trump and Harris. So far, over 58 million early in-person and mail-in votes have been cast, 41 percent of which were registered Democrats and 40 percent of which were registered Republicans.
While more Republicans are voting early than in the past, the early voting patterns may not reflect the overall result, especially as many Republicans tend to vote on Election Day.
Some pollsters, however, predict that Trump may not only win but could win by a landslide with 300 Electoral College votes.