Former President Donald J. Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in six of seven swing states when leaners are included in Emerson College Polling Center’s final poll. However, the margins are razor-thin, with five of Trump’s six leads under one percent.
Trump’s strongest lead is in Arizona, where he is up by 2.1 points. This falls to 0.7 in Pennsylvania, 0.5 in Georgia, 0.4 in North Carolina, 0.3 in Wisconsin, and a minuscule 0.1 in Nevada. Harris leads in Michigan by 1.6 points.
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Results without leaners are also very mixed: Trump leads by two points in Arizona, and by one point in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The race is a dead heat in Nevada and Wisconsin, and in Michigan, Harris holds a two-point lead.
Emerson’s results suggest a battle of the sexes may decide the presidential contest, with men breaking for Trump and women breaking for Harris in all seven states. Men break more strongly for the America First leader than women break for the Democratic candidate in every case—but women have outpaced men in early voting turnout so far, at 54 percent to 43.6 percent.
❓What Happened: American farmers are showing strong support for President Trump’s trade policies, expecting tariffs to bolster the agricultural sector.
👥 Who’s Involved: President Donald J. Trump, American farmers, Purdue University, and CME Group.
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📍 Where & When: United States, April (latest data from Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer).
💬 Key Quote: “This month, one out of four respondents said it was a good time to make large investments.” — Perdue University study.
⚠️ Impact: Increased farmer optimism and investment intentions, with expectations of improved financial performance.
IN FULL:
Farmers across America are expressing robust support for President Donald J. Trump‘s trade policies, according to the latest data from the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The survey reveals that 70 percent of farmers believe the tariffs imposed under Trump’s administration will ultimately strengthen the agricultural sector. This optimistic outlook is reflected in the significant rise in farmer sentiment observed in April, with both current and future expectations showing marked improvement.
The Farm Capital Investment Index, a key measure of farmers‘ willingness to invest, has reached its highest level since May 2021. This surge in investment sentiment is underscored by the finding that one in four respondents considers it a favorable time to make substantial investments. This figure is nearly twice the percentage recorded in surveys conducted from May to October of the previous year.
Moreover, the Farm Financial Performance Index has remained above 100 for four consecutive months. This indicates that producers anticipate financial performance this year to be on par with, or slightly exceed, the levels seen last year.
The data underscores a growing confidence among American farmers in the Trump administration’s economic strategies. By focusing on restoring fairness in global trade and opening new markets for U.S. producers, the administration has garnered significant support within the agricultural community.
The optimism of farmers matches the similar sentiment expressed by those in the manufacturing industry, who have also praised President Trump’s tariff policies.
President Trump has said his new trade deal with the United Kingdom, announced Thursday, will significantly open the British market to American produce.
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What Happened: President Donald J. Trump is once again pushing for a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, threatening sanctions if either country violates the suspension of hostilities. He hopes a ceasefire can pave the way for a peace deal between the warring nations.
👥 Who’s Involved: President Donald J. Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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📍 Where & When: President Trump called for a ceasefire in a post on Truth Social on Thursday, May 8, 2025.
💬 Key Quote: “If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions,” President Trump warned.
⚠️ Impact: With the Russian economy beginning to show signs of strain under current U.S. sanctions, and Putin even expressing a desire to re-establish access to Western markets, the 30-day ceasefire demand may be too much for him to pass up. The Russian leader has already signalled he is open to a shorter-term cessation of hostilities. However, this may be the final efforts of the Trump White House to broker an end to the conflict before washing their hands of the issue.
IN FULL:
President Donald J. Trump is calling for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, threating that the United States and its partners will impose crippling sanctions on whichever of the two nations either refuse the agreement or violate it. The America First leader outlined the ceasefire proposal in a post on Truth Social late Thursday, May 8, 2025.
“The U.S. calls for, ideally, a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both Countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations,” Trump wrote, continuing: “If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions.”
He added: “Thousands of young soldiers are dying on a weekly basis, and everybody should want it to STOP. I do, and the United States of America does, also. As President, I will stay committed to securing Peace between Russia and Ukraine, together with the Europeans, and a Lasting Peace it will be!”
Trump emphasized that the ceasefire demand is intended to “ultimately build toward a Peace Agreement” and that it must be done “quickly.” Additionally, President Trump offered to be “available on a moment’s notice” to help broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Earlier in the week, Trump expressed his disgust and anger with the intransigence shown by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments toward a peace deal. Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance, speaking at the Munich Leaders Meeting in Washington, D.C., said that Russia is “asking for too much” in return for ending its war against neighboring Ukraine, highlighting the Trump White House’s continued frustration with reaching an elusive peace settlement.
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❓What Happened: The European Union (EU) announced plans to challenge U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and launched a public consultation on countermeasures.
👥 Who’s Involved: European Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, U.S. President Donald J. Trump, John Plueger of Air Lease Corp.
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📍 Where & When: Luxembourg, May 7, 2025.
💬 Key Quote: “The EU’s objective is thus to reaffirm that internationally agreed rules matter, and these cannot be unilaterally disregarded by any WTO member, including the US,” stated the European Commission.
⚠️ Impact: Further trade tensions with tariffs affecting industries such as automotive, aerospace, and spirits, with a possible shift in production strategies for EU manufacturers.
IN FULL:
The European Union (EU) has declared its intention to contest the United States’ reciprocal tariff policy at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This announcement was made during a press conference held by EU Commissioner Maros Sefcovic at the EU Council building on May 7, 2025.
The European Commission has initiated a public consultation on possible countermeasures targeting U.S. imports valued at $107.4 billion, should negotiations with Washington falter. The proposed list includes a wide array of agricultural and industrial goods, notably bourbon and tequila, which have been contentious points between the transatlantic partners. President Donald J. Trump had previously threatened to impose a 200 percent tariff on EU alcohol imports, escalating tensions.
The EU’s dispute will formally begin with a consultation request, as the Commission asserts that the U.S. tariffs contravene fundamental WTO rules. “The EU’s objective is thus to reaffirm that internationally agreed rules matter and these cannot be unilaterally disregarded by any WTO member, including the US,” the Commission emphasized in its statement.
European Trade Commissioner Maroš Sefcovic highlighted the EU’s aim to negotiate a resolution to avoid Trump’s proposed 20 percent reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. imports from the EU. Despite ongoing talks, Sefcovic noted that the EU is preparing for all outcomes. The U.S. has already imposed a 25 percent tariff on imported vehicles, impacting European car manufacturers.
In a statement, EC President Ursula von der Leyen expressed commitment to finding negotiated solutions, stating, “We believe there are good deals to be made for the benefit of consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.”
The EU has temporarily halted retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which could affect $24.1 billion worth of U.S. goods with a 25 percent tariff rate if implemented. Its combative approach with the Trump administration at the WTO contrasts with the approach of the United Kingdom, a former EU member state now able to control its own trade policy, which struck an ambitious free trade agreement with the U.S. on Thursday.
❓What Happened: President Donald J. Trump announced a new trade agreement with the United Kingdom, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets.
👥 Who’s Involved: President Donald J. Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, investors, and the U.S. Stock Market.
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📍 Where & When: The announcement of the U.S.-UK trade deal was made on Thursday morning, May 8, 2025, from the Oval Office.
💬 Key Quote: Trump stated the deal will provide “billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports, especially in agriculture.”
⚠️ Impact: U.S. stock indices rose, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all gaining. The blue-chip Dow narrowly missed exit correction territory.
IN FULL:
U.S. stock markets experienced a boost on Thursday following President Donald J. Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement with the United Kingdom. At closing, the Dow Jones had gained 254 points, or 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 also rose 0.6 percent, and the Nasdaq closed up 1 percent.
After weeks of what Trump critics tried to frame as a market decline, the blue-chip Dow Jones narrowly missed exit correction territory, strongly suggesting that the volatility has been driven by a much-needed market correction. Notably, the market gains are also throwing cold water on fears that the United States has entered a bear market.
In a statement from the Oval Office, President Trump highlighted the economic benefits of the new trade deal, which promises “billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports, especially in agriculture.” He noted that the United Kingdom will remove non-tariff barriers that have previously “unfairly discriminated against American products.”
Despite the new agreement, lower tariffs on imports from Britain will remain. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that tariffs would continue to generate $6 billion in revenue for the United States.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent informed a House committee earlier this week that the U.S. is engaged in negotiations with 17 out of 18 key trading partners. While the U.S.-U.K. deal is seen as a positive step, larger traders like China may present more significant challenges. China has reiterated its demand for the U.S. to cancel tariffs, a point of contention ahead of talks between Secretary Bessent and a Chinese delegation this weekend.
President Trump has maintained his stance on not reducing the 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods during negotiations. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, citing trade policy uncertainties, decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent.
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❓What Happened: Following a lawsuit and criticism from the Trump administration, Germany’s domestic spy agency has suspended its classification of the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which placed second in the country’s recent federal elections, as a right-wing extremist organization.
👥 Who’s Involved: AfD, AfD leader Alice Weidel, co-leader Tino Chrupalla, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
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📍 Where & When: The spy agency announced the move on May 8.
💬 Key Quote: “We are defending ourselves with all legal means against the upgrade by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.” — Weidel and Chrupalla.
⚠️ Impact: The German spy agency will not surveil members of the AfD or place informants in the party as general policy until the courtcase is resolved.
IN FULL:
The German domestic spy agency has suspended its labelling of the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as a right-wing extremist organization following pressure from the Trump administration and a new lawsuit. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution announced it would be suspending the classification on May 8 until a court decides on the outcome of the pending lawsuit.
The AfD is appealing the classification at the Cologne Administrative Court to reverse the spy agency’s decision. If the court does not rule in favour of the party, the spy agency will be able to surveil party members and use informants to infiltrate it at scale.
Following the announcement from the spy agency, AfD leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla both claimed it as a victory, though the move will only become permanent after a ruling.
“We are defending ourselves with all legal means against the upgrade by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution,” the pair said in a statement. Their party placed second in Germany’s recent federal elections, and it is the leading party in several areas, particularly in the former East Germany.
Along with the lawsuit, the move comes after the German spy agency was widely criticised by members of Donald J. Trump’s administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “Germany just gave its spy agency new powers to surveil the opposition. That’s not democracy—it’s tyranny in disguise,” Rubio said.
❓What Happened: With Ed Martin’s nomination as U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia stalled in the Senate, it is widely speculated that President Donald J. Trump will announce former judge, prosecutor, and Fox News host Jeanine Pirro as his new pick.
👥 Who’s Involved: Current Interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, Ed Martin; Fox News host Judge Jeanine Pirro; President Donald J. Trump, Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), the U.S. Senate.
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📍 Where & When: Washington, D.C., May 8, 2025.
💬 Key Quote: “He is a terrific person. He wasn’t getting the support from people that I thought,” Trump said of the stalled Martin nomination, adding: “I’m very disappointed in that. But I have so many different things that I’m doing now with the trade [negotiations]. One person, I can only lift that little phone so many times in a day. But we have somebody else that will be great.”
⚠️ Impact: Pirro is seen as a staunch ally of Trump, who, like Martin, will continue to carry out the America First leader’s agenda in the District of Columbia.
IN FULL:
It is believed that President Donald J. Trump will soon tap former judge, prosecutor, and Fox News host Jeanine Pirro as the new Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia. The move comes as the push to confirm the current interim prosecutor, Ed Martin, has stalled out in the U.S. Senate after drawing opposition from Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), an establishment figure often accused of catering to the political goals of multinational corporations over Americans.
Earlier on Thursday, after signing a landmark trade deal with the United Kingdom, President Trump addressed the current situation with Martin’s nomination, expressing his frustration with the senators opposing his pick but signaling that the White House would be moving on to another choice. “He is a terrific person. He wasn’t getting the support from people that I thought,” Trump said, adding: “I’m very disappointed in that. But I have so many different things that I’m doing now with the trade [negotiations]. One person, I can only lift that little phone so many times in a day. But we have somebody else that will be great.”
Trump went on to reemphasize that his White House has “somebody else that we’ll be announcing over the next two days who’s gonna be great.”
Jeanine Pirro has been a staunch ally of Trump, even before either was on the national political stage. Notably, Pirro was an early backer of Trump’s successful 2016 presidential bid and served as a quasi-surrogate, pushing back against attacks on him in the media.
❓What Happened: The Bank of England reduced its base interest rate from 4.5 percent to 4.25 percent.
👥 Who’s Involved: The Bank of England, economist Patrick Minford, U.S. President Donald J. Trump, and the United States Federal Reserve.
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📍 Where & When: Thursday, May 8, 2025, in the United Kingdom.
💬 Key Quote: “I would have welcomed more [of a cut to base rates] actually… At the moment, the priority is to try and stop the recession gathering pace,” said economist and former Margaret Thatcher advisor Patrick Minford.
⚠️ Impact: The British rate cut may not be sufficient to prevent a recession in Britain, but could increase pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to finally enact a rate cut of its own.
IN FULL:
The Bank of England has announced a reduction in its base interest rate from 4.5 percent to 4.25 percent, a move that has been met with mixed reactions from economists and the public. While this decision is seen as beneficial for many homeowners, Patrick Minford, a prominent economist and former advisor to the late Prime Minsiter Margaret Thatcher, has expressed concerns that the cut may not be enough to avert an impending recession. Conversely, yesterday, the United States Federal Reservedeclined to cut rates at all, raising concerns that the American central bank is asleep at the wheel.
“I would have welcomed more [of a cut to base rates] actually,” Minford said in an interview, warning: “At the moment, the priority is to try and stop the recession gathering pace.”
As in the U.S., the British inflation rate has continued to fall, decreasing from 2.8 percent in February to 2.6 percent in March. However, in both countries, the inflation rate remains just above their respective central bank targets. In the U.S., President Donald J. Trump has steadily increased political pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to usher in a cut to interest rates and inject liquidity into the American economy.
Following the signing of a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK on Thursday, President Trump again pushed “Too Late” Powell to cut rates, likening a cut to “jet fuel” and suggesting Powell’s reluctance to lower interest rates is politically motivated.
Despite growing concerns over a potential global recession driven by a deflationary demand collapse, the U.S. labor market has remained resilient under President Trump. The National Pulse reported on Thursday that unemployment claims are continuing to fall in the U.S., beating expectations, suggesting that recession fears may be overblown.
❓What Happened: U.S. voting data shows that the newly-elected Pope Leo XIV—formerly known as Cardinal Robert Prevost of Chicago, Illinois—is a registered Republican and has voted in a number of Republican primary elections in the past. Additionally, voter modeling suggests he is a conservative Republican voter.
👥 Who’s Involved: Pope Leo XIV.
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📍 Where & When: May 8, 2025, the Vatican in Rome, Italy.
💬 Key Quote: Our Turning Point Action team pulled the voting history for Pope Leo XIV. He’s a registered Republican who has voted in Republican primaries when not living abroad,” Turning Point Action’s Charlie Kirk wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter). He added: “Our data shows he’s a strong Republican, and he’s pro-life.”
⚠️ Impact: While not conclusive as to what the theological and ideological temperament of Pope Leo XIV might be, the data suggests that the new pontiff does represent a break from the more progressive excesses of his predecessor, the late Pope Francis.
IN FULL:
With the election of Chicago-born American Cardinal Robert Prevost to the papacy, taking the name Pope Leo XIV, we can, for the first time, actually know—to an extent—the political voting history of a pontiff in American elections. An American citizen, Pope Leo XIV is a registered member of the Republican Party and cast Republican primary ballots in 2012, 2014, and 2016.
“Our Turning Point Action team pulled the voting history for Pope Leo XIV. He’s a registered Republican who has voted in Republican primaries when not living abroad,” Turning Point Action’s Charlie Kirk wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “Our data shows he’s a strong Republican, and he’s pro-life.”
Notably, the new pontiff has also cast ballots in a number of general elections in the United States in both presidential and midterm cycles. Pope Leo XIV voted in all U.S. general elections between 2000 and 2008, casting a ballot again in 2012 and 2014, and in 2018 and 2024. Additionally, according to voter modeling by Turning Point Action, Pope Leo XIV is categorized as having a generally conservative political ideology and a strong Republican partisanship rating.
SCOOP: Our Turning Point Action team pulled the voting history for Pope Leo XIV.
He's a registered Republican who has voted in Republican primaries when not living abroad.
The election and modeling data may provide hope for some of the more traditionalist factions in the Catholic Church, who want the new pontiff to provide a reprieve from the late Pope Francis‘s more “progressive” papacy. However, it is important to note that outside the modeling, it is unknown which candidates for public office were actually supported by Pope Leo XIV, with more moderate Republicans being just as likely as more conservative candidates.
Throwing some cold water on the idea that Pope Leo XIV may in some ways embody a more American conservative style of Catholicism is his history of criticism of President Donald J. Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance over their immigration policy on social media. The National Pulse reported earlier on Thursday that then-Cardinal Robert Prevost had shared several articles on X attacking both Trump and Vance over their deportation and immigration restriction policies.
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❓What Happened: Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV, elected as the first American pope, previously criticized President Donald J. Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance’s stance on immigration.
👥 Who’s Involved: Pope Leo XIV, President Trump, Vice President Vance, and the late Pope Francis.
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📍 Where & When: Vatican City, with the election confirmed on May 8, 2025.
⚠️Impact: Pope Leo XIV’s election is a point of national pride for the U.S., but, despite President Trump’s gracious response to his election, the pontiff’s past critiques of America First policies suggest he may attempt to undermine the Trump administration.
IN FULL:
Chicago-born Pope Leo XIV previously criticized President Donald J. Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance on immigration, sharing articles on X (formerly Twitter) calling the America First leader’s “rhetoric” on immigration “problematic” and criticizing his vice president’s stance on a Christian’s ties of obligation to his country and family.
The newly elected pontiff, formerly Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, has a repost of an X user criticizing President Trump and Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele for the deportation of alleged gang member, domestic abuser, and human trafficker Kilmar Abrego Garcia at the top of his timeline.
In 2015, he shared an article by Cardinal Timothy Dolan, Archbishop of New York, titled ‘Why Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric is so problematic.’
More recently, he used the @drprevost account to amplify criticism of Vice President J.D. Vance. He shared twoarticles attacking Vance, who was responding to the late Pope Francis’s thinly veiled criticism of Trump’s mass deportation policy, for saying that it is in line with Church teaching that “you love your family and then you love your neighbor, and then you love your community, and then you love your fellow citizens, and then after that, prioritize the rest of the world.”
Vance, a Catholic convert, cited the doctrine of ordo amoris, Latin for “order of love,” first outlined by the great 4th–5th-century theologian St. Augustine, angering liberal clergy—apparently including the future Pope Leo XIV—who were pushing the line that illegal immigrants should be given the same consideration as relatives and fellow citizens.
Nevertheless, President Trump has welcomed the new pontiff’s election, writing on his Truth Social platform, writing, “Congratulations to Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, who was just named Pope. It is such an honor to realize that he is the first American Pope. What excitement, and what a Great Honor for our Country. I look forward to meeting Pope Leo XIV. It will be a very meaningful moment!”
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❓What Happened: Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, a 69-year-old Chicago native, has been elected Pope Leo XIV by the College of Cardinals, becoming the first American pontiff in history following a conclave in the Sistine Chapel.
👥 Who’s Involved: Cardinal Robert Prevost, the College of Cardinals, and the late Pope Francis, who appointed Prevost to key Vatican roles.
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📍 Where & When: Vatican City, Sistine Chapel, with white smoke signaling the election on May 8, 2025. Impact: Prevost’s election as a dual U.S.-Peruvian citizen shatters a long-standing bias against an American pope, potentially reshaping the Catholic Church’s global influence amid its 1.4 billion followers.
⚠️ Impact: Prevost’s election as a dual U.S.-Peruvian citizen shatters a long-standing bias against an American pope, potentially reshaping the Catholic Church’s global influence amid its 1.4 billion followers.
IN FULL:
In a historic upset, the College of Cardinals has elected Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as Pope Leo XIV, making him the first American to lead the Roman Catholic Church. The 69-year-old Chicago native, who also holds Peruvian citizenship, emerged from the Sistine Chapel conclave on May 8, 2025, after white smoke signaled the selection of Pope Francis’s successor. Prevost’s rise to the papacy defies a centuries-old taboo against an American pope, given America’s geopolitical dominance, and marks a bold new chapter for the Church’s 1.4 billion faithful.
Prevost’s path to the papacy was paved by Pope Francis, who brought him to Rome in 2023 to head the Dicastery for Bishops, a critical role overseeing bishop nominations worldwide. His prominence in the Vatican gave him an edge few cardinals could match, despite his low public profile. Francis further elevated Prevost in early 2025 to the highest rank of cardinals, a clear signal of trust in the Chicagoan’s leadership. Prevost also presided over a groundbreaking reform, integrating three women into the voting bloc for bishop nominations, a move that underscored his alignment with Francis’s progressive vision.
His Peruvian citizenship, acquired in 2015, and his leadership as prior general of the Augustinian order, founded by St. Augustine in the 13th century, bolstered his global credentials. As president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, Prevost maintained close ties with the region’s Catholic hierarchy, home to the world’s largest Catholic population.
The conclave, attended by 133 cardinals under 80, was the largest in history, reflecting Francis’s diverse appointments. Prevost’s election, requiring a two-thirds majority, suggests he bridged divides between progressive and traditionalist factions.
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