Returned ballots in Pennsylvania suggest that Republican voters are casting far more early votes than in 2022 and are leading Democrats in 40 counties, compared to just two in 2022. Over 587,000 registered Republicans have voted early in the crucial swing state, an increase of over 323,000 compared to 2022. Democrats, who are more likely to vote early, have seen a smaller increase since 2022 of just over 140,000 votes, for a total of 997,450 overall.
When looking at 2020 numbers, Republicans have 30,692 fewer ballots returned, but Democrats have a massive 721,276 fewer returned ballots. At the county level, the GOP led the Democrats in just eight counties in 2020, a number which fell to just two counties in 2022. This year, the GOP leads the Democrats in 40 counties going into tomorrow’s election.
Prior data indicates that newly registered women dominate the early voting in Pennsylvania, with many voting Democrat. As of October 30, the state had seen at least 100,000 new voters cast their ballots early in the election.
Polling puts Trump only slightly ahead of Harris in the state. The final Emerson College Polling poll released Monday, November 4, gave President Donald J. Trump 49 percent and Vice President Kamala Harris 48 percent, well within the margin of error.
Over the weekend, the Harris campaign implied it would force key counties in battleground states like Pennsylvania to keep counting votes until Harris wins.
The Trump campaign also won an important victory in the state after Democrats and police shut down lines of voters requesting absentee ballots, as a court allowed the absentee process to be opened for several days ahead of tomorrow’s election.