The United Nations (UN) warned up to 1.5 million people would leave Syria as the jihadist offensive was gaining momentum. Rebels led by Saudi-born jihadist Abu Mohammad al-Julani and his Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group—formerly a branch of al-Qaeda—displaced 280,000 people in its initial phase, according to World Food Programme Director for Emergency Coordination Samer AbdelJaber.
“If the fighting continues at this pace, we anticipate up to 1.5 million people needing urgent support,” AbdelJaber said on Friday. “The situation in Syria was not easy before this escalation, so we’re looking at a crisis on top of crisis. And that’s why we’re really emphasizing the urgent need for funding,” he added.
Since then, President Bashar al-Assad’s government, backed by Russia and Iran, has folded rapidly, with HTS now in complete control of the territory formerly under Assad’s sway. This apparently swift end to the fighting could limit the number of Syrians who emigrate to escape the privations of war—but many may still flee, fearing reprisals under the new regime.
The Assad clan hailed from the Alawite sect of Shia Islam, regarded as heretics by the predominantly Sunni Muslim rebels. Syrian Christians and Druze may also fear the accession of a de facto al-Qaeda government, considering their mistreatment by al-Julani’s former comrades in the Islamic State group during earlier stages of the war.
Around one million Syrians migrated to Europe amid the 2015-16 migrant crisis, with chain migration swelling this number to 4.5 million over the following years.
