❓WHAT HAPPENED: Government data shows a steep decline in the illegal immigrant population, down by roughly one million since January 2025.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), President Donald Trump, and the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey team.
📍WHEN & WHERE: January–May 2025, United States (nationwide BLS/Census survey data).
💬KEY QUOTE: “We believe there is good evidence the illegal immigrant population has fallen considerably since January.” – Camarota & Zeigler, CIS.
🎯IMPACT: A shrinking illegal population could tighten the labor market, potentially raising wages and drawing more U.S.-born workers back into the workforce.
New analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey reveals one of the sharpest four-month declines in the foreign-born population in decades. Between January and May 2025, the foreign-born population—particularly non-citizens from Latin America—dropped sharply. The data points to a potential exodus of illegal immigrants amid Donald Trump’s return to power and increased immigration enforcement.
Researchers from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) estimate that the illegal immigrant population fell by about one million during this time frame, from 15.8 million in January to 14.8 million in May. The drop was entirely among non-citizens; the number of naturalized citizens rose slightly. Notably, a statistically significant decline occurred among Latin American non-citizens who arrived post-1980—a demographic that heavily overlaps with illegal immigrants.
This shift reverses a years-long trend of rising immigration under Joe Biden’s policies, including the CHNV program and border surges. Analysts credit the drop to the effect of Trump’s re-election, rhetoric, and swift action on enforcement. Nonetheless, they caution that some of the decline may be attributable to immigrants refusing to respond to government surveys or declining to identify as foreign-born.
The Center used CPS data and estimates of legal immigrant totals to isolate the likely illegal population. Though administrative data for May 2025 aren’t complete, their model shows a drop of roughly one million illegal immigrants. Before this, the illegal population had grown steadily since 2021, tracking the surge in border encounters, 84 percent of which were from Latin America.
The consequences could be profound: fewer illegal immigrants may boost wages for low-skilled American and legal workers, reduce labor competition, and motivate more U.S.-born men back into the workforce. While the report emphasizes the data’s limitations and preliminary nature, the decline in this population segment starkly contrasts with the Biden years, a tangible indicator of the Trump administration’s renewed approach.
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