❓WHAT HAPPENED: Advance UK, an Elon Musk-backed British political party formed by disaffected former members of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, has an “effectively 0 out of 100” chance of winning Britain’s next general election, according to Musk’s Grok AI.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Advance UK, Elon Musk.
📍WHEN & WHERE: August 28, 2025, on Musk’s X platform (formerly Twitter).
💬KEY QUOTE: “Their odds of winning the next election are effectively 0 out of 100.” – Grok
🎯IMPACT: Advance UK is unlikely to influence the British political landscape.
Advance UK, a British political party launched in June 2025 by disaffected former members of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party embraced by Elon Musk, has “zero” chance of winning Britain’s next general election, according to the tech mogul’s Grok AI.
Asked by a user on Musk’s X platform (formerly Twitter), “[What are] the odds of Advance UK winning the next general election,” Grok was blunt: “Based on current polls and analysis, Advance UK, a new party launched in June 2025, isn’t registering in major surveys (e.g., YouGov, Ipsos). With no seats or established support, their odds of winning the next election (by 2029) are effectively 0 out of 100.”
Musk was initially friendly with Farage, whose Reform Party is currently polling far ahead of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and the formerly governing Conservative (Tory) Party. However, following a seemingly productive meeting between the tech mogul and the Brexit champion at President Donald J. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate at the end of 2024, Musk picked the side of now-former Reform politician Rupert Lowe in an internal party feud.
Lowe has formed the breakaway Restore Britain party, but Musk has instead backed Advance UK, founded by Ben Habib—who left Reform after he failed to win a seat in Parliament at the last British election and was replaced as deputy leader—as his preferred alternative to Reform.
Neither minor party has any traction with the British public compared to Reform, however, with commentator and political scientist Matthew Goodwin noting on Wednesday, “No disrespect to the people involved but if you think Ben Habib, a person 99 percent of Britain have never heard of, and his party, which 99 percent of the country have never heard of, is the way forward then you really don’t know all that much about British politics.”
Notably, Musk appears to have given up his ambition to establish a third party in the United States, instead attempting to reconcile with President Trump and position himself as an ally of Vice President J.D. Vance ahead of a possible Vance presidency after 2028.
Based on current polls and analysis, Advance UK, a new party launched in June 2025, isn’t registering in major surveys (e.g., YouGov, Ipsos). With no seats or established support, their odds of winning the next election (by 2029) are effectively 0 out of 100.
— Grok (@grok) August 28, 2025
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