Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has won a huge landslide in Britain’s landslide, with the Conservatives crashing to 119 seats out of 650 after 14 years in government. Many have questioned why Britain seems to be turning left as America, France, the Netherlands, and other Western countries are turning towards the populist right—but the data suggests Labour’s victory is a product of Conservative collapse, with the leftist party achieving little or no growth in support.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice notes Labour’s roughly two-point rise in support countrywide is driven by a 19-point increase in support in Scotland, where the scandal-ridden, left-separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) has collapsed.
In England, Labour’s vote share remains essentially unchanged, while in Wales, where Labour has run the devolved government—roughly equivalent to a state government—their support has actually decreased.
“In many ways, this looks more like an election the Conservatives have lost than one Labour have won,” said Sir John, echoing the predictions of Raheem Kassam, Editor-in-Chief of The National Pulse, prior to the election.
Overall, Sir Keir’s party has won around 65 percent of parliamentary seats on only around 35 percent of the vote, less than two points up on 2019 and significantly lower than in 2017, under the far-left Jeremy Corbyn.
Many voters simply stayed home rather than vote for any of the parties on offer, with one of the lowest turnouts in British history.
For once Sky has it spot on:
‘A thumping majority without a thumping share of the vote’
Starmer has less votes than Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 because he only offers more of the same
It’s not just a bad day for democracy.
It’s a dangerous day for democracy.pic.twitter.com/b7UmdGEtV8— Howard Beckett (@BeckettUnite) July 5, 2024
THREATS.
Corbyn, ejected from Labour by Sir Keir after he took over, ran as an independent, defeating his Labour challenger. Labour also lost four seats to pro-Gaza independents, all Muslims, including the seat of Shadow Cabinet member Jonathan Ashworth. Pro-Gaza candidates came very close to scalping other high-profile Labour candidates, such as Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
Media coverage is therefore focusing in large part on the breakthrough of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, which has won only four seats outright but beaten the Conservatives and Labour into third place in many constituencies and placed third overall in terms of vote share.
Farage describes this parliamentary delegation as a “bridgehead,” saying he will use it to defeat Labour in 2029.
The combined vote share of Reform and Conservatives is significantly ahead of Labour’s.
Perversely, the fourth-placed Liberal Democrats have won dozens of seats, despite a far lower vote share than Reform, highlighting the increasing perversity of the British electoral system.
“35% is the lowest vote share ever to win a majority, let alone a landslide” pic.twitter.com/jU2IXoo8if
— Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) July 5, 2024