A new poll suggests Kamala Harris received no significant polling bump from the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Typically, candidates for the two major political parties see some degree of boost in popularity following their respective party nominating conventions.
According to the survey, Harris holds a four-point advantage over former President Donald J. Trump nationally, with 48 percent to the latter’s 44 percent. The data remains unchanged from the figures recorded before the DNC was held last week. Historically, presidential nominees often experience a boost in support following their convention speeches. However, this recent poll suggests that Harris‘s address did not generate such an increase.
Despite Harris‘s slight lead over Trump, Republican consultant Mark Harris has laid out a convincing argument that polling continues to underestimate support for the former president, as it did in the 2016 and 2020 presidential cycles. He notes that pollsters have had difficulty modeling low-propensity voters and that a high degree of polling is impacted by response bias among college-educated voters.
The National Pulse reported on Monday that a separate post-DNC survey showed former President Trump retaking a slight edge in the 2024 presidential contest, leading Harris by one point. According to the poll, Trump leads Harris with 49 percent to the latter’s 48 percent.
Compounding election anxieties for Democrats is a new forecast showing Republicans will likely retain the House of Representatives. Currently, the Democrats have only a 43.9 percent chance of retaking the lower legislative body on Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, Republicans stand a 56.1 percent chance of retaining their majority.
It should be noted that the White House and House of Representatives votes often coincide, which would suggest that former President Trump is actually seeing his campaign strengthen in the immediate aftermath of the DNC.
