Both Houses of Congress are scrambling to put together an emergency funding package to avoid a government shutdown before the November election, fearing a backlash among voters. While continuing resolutions are not unusual for Capitol Hill as a stop-gap measure to buy time for Congress to—in theory—pass larger budget bills, the government funding drama is always heightened heading into a presidential election.

House Republicans, under Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), have already tried and failed to pass a continuing resolution containing several conservative policy priorities. The funding bill failed after support collapsed due to Republican infighting. The latest funding deal, while receiving support from Senate Democrats and some Republicans, is coming under fire from conservatives for selling them out and could prove disastrous for John’s long-term leadership prospects in the House.

The National Pulse breaks down where the current funding fight began, where things stand now, and where it will likely head in the next few critical days.

HOW WE GOT HERE. 

While Speaker Johnson and House Republicans fumbled the frantic fight before the election, it isn’t necessarily their fault. The blame primarily lies with Senate Democrats and Republicans, who have been unable to move the budget bill passed over the summer by the lower chamber.

Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) correctly points to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) for the funding fight itself.

Schumer delayed attempts to take up the House budget bills to set up the continuing resolution showdown just before the election. A small amount of his decision-making was down to poor scheduling, but most of it was a calculated attempt to force Republicans into this jam.

Because the bills remain languishing in their respective Senate committees, Congress is now stuck having to consider emergency measures to ensure the government’s lights stay on.

JOHNSON’S FOLLY.

Last Wednesday, the House of Representatives rejected a short-term funding bill put forward by Speaker Johnson and his allies in Republican leadership. The bill included several key conservative policy priorities, including the SAVE Act. A top concern for supporters of President Donald J. Trump, the SAVE Act would implement more stringent federal rules to ensure that non-citizens are not casting ballots in U.S. elections.

The Johnson-backed continuing resolution would have funded the government through late March next year. By providing roughly six months of government funding, the Republican Speaker’s plan would have prevented a second funding fight later this year and ensured that should Trump win November’s election, his agenda and budget would be what dictates Congress’s priorities. Democrats balked at the March date, insisting on a much shorter funding timeline—in the hopes they can eventually force a longer-term funding bill that could delay a future President Trump from enacting his budget agenda for some time.

Despite the March date, the tacit support of President Trump, and rolling the SAVE Act into the continuing resolution, the stop-gap measure narrowly failed Wednesday night. A small group of House conservatives deprived Johnson of the majority he needed to pass the bill. The objectors have a long track record of opposing any continuing resolution. Johnson’s rush to a vote suggests the Speaker understood the so-called conservative funding bill was doomed and saw its failure as an excuse to roll out a clean continuing resolution—as he did this past weekend.

A PYRRHIC VICTORY? 

While House conservatives view Johnson’s initial stop-gap funding plan’s defeat as a victory and believe the threat of a government shutdown gives them greater leverage over Senate Democrats and Joe Biden’s White House, in truth, it has likely paved the way for a current “clean” continuing resolution and another funding fight in December. However, there are a few key things the House conservative opposition has right. Namely, attaching the SAVE Act to the Speaker’s initial funding plan would not have impacted November’s election in terms of preventing non-citizens from voting.

The fact is that the SAVE Act’s inclusion in Johnson’s continuing resolution was little more than a ploy to buy conservative votes. Ultimately, even in the remote chance the bill became law, the SAVE Act provisions would not have taken effect until the next federal election, meaning the problem of non-citizen voters this November was left unresolved. House conservative critics were right to point out that the Speaker and other backers of the bill conveniently downplayed this fact.

However, House conservatives won’t admit that Johnson’s defeated continuing resolution was probably their best—and honestly only—bargaining position. Given the narrow partisan margins in the House and the Democrat control of the U.S. Senate, a clean and short-term continuing resolution is the likely political outcome without any legislative leverage.

THE CLEAN FUNDING BILL.

On Sunday, the clean, continuing resolution outcome took one step closer to reality.

Speaker Johnson unveiled a new funding bill—scheduled for consideration before the House Rules Committee later today—that lacks the SAVE Act and continues government funding at current levels through December 20, 2024. The Rules vote will be the first and most critical step for the clean funding bill as the committee does have several conservative members who could move to block it. If this happens, Johnson and House leadership will likely be forced to move the continuing resolution under suspension, which will require two-thirds of the House to pass—meaning a bulk of the Democrats will be needed to vote in favor.

The new continuing resolution sets up a second funding fight just before the lame-duck Congress ends—and gives Democrats another chance to potentially hamper Trump’s budget priorities. In Congress’s upper House, Senator Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has already backed the clean funding bill, which includes a funding boost for the United States Secret Service.

Whether Johnson’s newest continuing resolution is passed out of the Rules Committee or brought to the floor under suspension, it will almost certainly pass the House with more Democrat than Republican votes. Once in the Senate, the funding bill is expected to sail through the chamber and head to Joe Biden’s desk for his signature to enact the measure and avoid a shutdown just before the election.