Former President Donald J. Trump and the Republican Party hold a significant edge in nine of the ten election indicators measured by Gallup. The data from the nearly 100-year-old public opinion research firm suggests that, at this juncture, the election is Trump and the GOP’s to lose.
Republicans currently lead Democrats in party identification with 48 percent to the latter’s 45 percent. According to Gallup, this measure strongly indicates an election’s outcome. Additionally, 46 percent of Americans say the Republican Party is better equipped to handle the most pressing issues facing the country, while only 41 percent say the Democratic Party is—also considered a strong election indicator.
Meanwhile, among moderate election indicators, just 22 percent of Americans say they’re satisfied with current conditions in the United States—a measure favoring the Republicans. Gallup’s economic confidence score is negative 28, which the research firm also notes as a moderate indicator in favor of Trump and the GOP. When asked which party is more likely to keep America prosperous, 50 percent of respondents say the Republican Party, while just 44 percent say the Democratic Party.
Gallup’s tracking of presidential approval also favors Trump and the GOP. The 81-year-old incumbent, Joe Biden, is currently underwater with just 39 percent favorability.
On party favorability ratings, Republicans hold just a one-point edge, with 43 percent viewing the GOP as favorable to 42 percent for the Democrats. Trump and the Republicans also have the edge on government activity, with 55 percent of Americans wanting less government intervention.
The only area that leans somewhat in favor of the Democrats is Congressional approval, which sits at just 20 percent—though the split control of Congress suggests this is a wash for both political parties.