The U.S. Senate in Nebraska is emerging as an unexpectedly tight contest between incumbent Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) and independent candidate Dan Osborn, a U.S. Navy veteran and labor union leader. Typically a safe Republican seat, Osborn’s left-populism—and tacit backing by some national Democrats—has pushed the race into toss-up territory.
Polls suggest a surprisingly competitive race. An Independent Center survey last week showed Osborn leading Fischer, with 47 percent to her 42 percent. Additionally, a SurveyUSA poll sponsored by Osborn’s campaign indicated a narrow 45 percent to 44 percent lead for him. Notably, a New York Times/Siena College poll found Osborn ahead by 11 points in Nebraska’s second congressional district, which includes Omaha.
POPULIST OR CLOSET DEMOCRAT?
Osborn, previously known for leading a strike at Omaha’s Kellogg plant in 2021, filed to run as an independent candidate last October. Shortly after announcing his bid, he declined an endorsement by the Nebraska Democratic Party—stressing he’s been registered as nonpartisan in the state since 2004. Last month, he was endorsed by the Reform Party.
On the campaign trail, Osborn has found success combining a libertarian approach to social issues like abortion and marijuana legalization with pro-labor stances like raising the minimum wage and strengthening workers’ rights to organize a union. Additionally, he has stressed the need to secure the U.S. border and says he wants to cut taxes on overtime.
Osborn’s campaign has attracted significant outside funding, with $4 million in support primarily from the Retire Career Politicians PAC linked to the Sixteen Thirty Fund—the project of a Democrat dark money operation run by Arabella Advisors.
BAILING OUT FISCHER.
Fischer—a rancher who has served for over a decade in the Senate—was anticipated to have a reasonably easy path to reelection. However, the Nebraska Republican’s close ties to the anti-Trump Koch Network and her more neoconservative foreign policy views have left her open to a populist insurgency. Her polling weakness against Osborn has prompted the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) to step in with over half a million dollars in ads just a month before the election.
With a narrow controlling majority in the U.S. Senate up-for-grabs, the Nebraska Senate race could prove pivotal.
