Support for Democrats among black voters is seeing a significant decline, according to new election survey data. An October New York Times/Siena national poll of black voters reveals a potentially catastrophic drop in support for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, compared to Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, President Donald J. Trump is seeing his margins increase, inching up into the double digits.
During the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton won black voters by an estimated 85-point margin—capturing 92 percent of the demographic. Similarly, Joe Biden won black voters by an estimated 81-point margin. Conversely, Trump only won 7 percent of the black vote in 2016 and 9 percent in 2020. However, the NYT/Siena data suggests Trump is now on pace to win 15 percent of the black vote, with Kamala Harris only capturing 78 percent—a historically low margin of just 63 points.
Concerningly for Harris, her 63-point margin among black voters is down from even that of Biden before he dropped out of the presidential race in July. Before his ouster, 74 percent of black voters said they would cast their ballot for Biden in November.
In a close presidential race, margins among any voter demographic could potentially swing the election. The notable shift in the black vote could have a major impact on the outcome in states like Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Faced with eroding black support, Kamala Harris has tapped former President Barack Obama to hit the campaign trail in an effort to improve her margins. In one of Obama’s first events for Harris, the Democrat former president shamed black men who refuse to support Harris—accusing them of sexism.