The National Pulse’s Editor-in-Chief, Raheem Kassam, joined recently freed former Trump White House Chief Strategist Stephen K. Bannon on War Room to explain how the Democrats have failed to build a strong enough firewall in the three Rust Belt battleground states.
Despite some concerns regarding an uptick in Democrat-identifying female voters in Pennsylvania, Kassam breaks down voter data showing that Democrats are falling short of the early vote margins they need to hold off Donald J. Trump’s expected Election Day voter surge.
“It comes down to how a lot of the data is coming out right now—a lot of what we expect, a lot of what the graphs are showing us,” Kassas tells Bannon, noting at least one area of concern: “What the data shows us, as far as their voter file data that is coming out, is that in Pennsylvania they claim about double the number of female Democrats—new voters specifically—are voting than, say, female Republicans.”
“The numbers amongst men… pretty much the same,” Kassam adds. Despite the boost from new female voters, however, the Democrat early vote numbers already banked in Pennsylvania appear to be falling short of the margins they need to overcome the usual Republican turnout on the actual day of the election.
In other battleground states, the numbers for Trump are much better—especially in the Sun Belt states of Arizona and Nevada: “The numbers, however, flip completely on their head when you go to a state like Arizona. What they’re showing us in Arizona is that male Republicans are outstripping male Democrats by about two to one and that the female numbers are about parity,” Kassam says.
While the female low-propensity voter data in Pennsylvania should concern the Trump campaign, a strong push of the Republican base vote heading into election day could still see Trump win the state. The state’s early vote has predominantly been older, leaving a significant segment of younger voters yet to turn out or vote. This means Democrats may still face a base turnout crisis in the must-win swing state.