President Donald J. Trump‘s 2024 presidential campaign says Democrats are facing a significant turnout problem hearing into Election Day on November 5. A memo issued by the campaign’s chief data consultant, Tim Saler, argues that “Republicans are outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast” while “Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout…”
“Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing,” Saler writes. He adds: “If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?”
DEMOCRAT SPIN.
Throughout October, Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrat campaign surrogates aggressively pushed their voters to cast ballots during the early voting period. During a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, in mid-October, Harris told her supporters: “In Erie County, you can vote early in person. Now is the time to make your plan to vote, and if you have already received your ballot in the mail, please do not wait.”
The corporate media parroted the early vote messaging from top Democrats, with The Hill stating last month that the “Harris campaign and Democratic groups are working hard to push their supporters to vote early in this year’s election” and that the campaign “wants to maximize its early advantage.”
EARLY VOTE COLLAPSE.
However, Saler’s memo notes that data shows Democratic voters appear to have largely ignored the Harris campaign’s effort. Citing TargetSmart, the Trump campaign states urban turnout in Arizona is down 385,285 voters compared to the same point in 2020. Likewise, the female vote is down by 170,011 in the state.
In Georgia, urban turnout is down by 153,846 votes, while female voter turnout is down by 46,732. North Carolina has seen a decrease of 175,470 in its rural turnout and 154,459 drop among women. Similarly, Nevada’s urban vote is down 191,199, while women are down 126,112 voters.
Among the so-called “blue wall” states, Michigan has seen a catastrophic collapse in urban turnout, down 321,523 from this point in 2020. Female turnout is down over 200,000 votes. The Michigan numbers are mirrored closely by Pennsylvania, which saw a decline of 381,519 urban voters and a staggering 450,802 female voters. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has seen 100,733 fewer urban and 238,452 female voters during the early vote period.
Trump camp memo argues Dems have an early vote turnout problem because urban early voting is down & rural is up compared to 2020
(Dem response: more of their voters plan to vote on Election Day when compared to how they voted 4 years ago) pic.twitter.com/3ysXUgxt3w
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) November 4, 2024
