FiveThirtyEight, once a leading establishment data journalism site, is being shut down by ABC News.
While the brand technically still exists under ABC’s umbrella, the original site and its independent operation are being dismantled after years of declining influence and major forecasting errors.
The news was first reported on Tuesday evening by the Wall Street Journal, which said: “The ABC news magazine shows “20/20” and “Nightline” are consolidating into one unit, resulting in job cuts, the people said. ABC is also eliminating the political and data-driven news site 538, which had about 15 employees.”
Founded by Nate Silver in 2008, FiveThirtyEight gained prominence for its statistical approach to elections, correctly calling Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection. However, its reputation suffered after severely miscalculating the 2016 election, giving Hillary Clinton an 81 percent chance of victory while underestimating Donald Trump’s strength in key swing states. The site later overestimated Democratic performance in 2020 and 2022, further eroding confidence in its modelling.
ABC News acquired FiveThirtyEight in 2018 but cut most of its staff in 2023. Silver departed, and the site was rebranded as ‘538’ under new leadership, though it failed to regain its former relevance.