Former President Donald Trump is running just 10 points behind incumbent Joe Biden in heavily Democrat New York state according to a new poll. Conducted by Siena College, the poll shows Biden capturing just 46 percent of the vote, with Donald Trump on his heels at 36 percent.
In 2020, Biden won New York’s 29 presidential electors with just over 60 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 37.7 percent. The Siena College poll comes on the heels of several 2024 general election surveys showing former President Trump pulling ahead of Biden. Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) modeling conducted by Stack Data Strategy indicates that Trump is by-and-large the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election with 292 electoral votes, flipping Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Gavin Wax, President of the New York Young Republican Club in Manhattan, told The National Pulse on Monday: “New Yorkers are waking up to the carnage around them. Increasingly, people are turning to Trump as the only viable way to save America and this once great city. That’s why we’ll be honoring the 45th President at our gala next month, and why we continue to work week-in week-out to take the MAGA message out into this state. Sometimes against the odds, but no longer against the trend.”
Two weeks ago, the New York Times/Siena College survey found Donald Trump defeating Joe Biden in five of the six critical 2024 swing states. The poll also found support for Trump hitting unprecedented rates among ethnic minorities and young Americans, with voters under 30 preferring Biden by just one percentage point. Biden’s lead among Hispanics has dwindled to single digits, and almost one-quarter of black voters – 22 percent – intend to vote for Trump, which is “a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”
📊 NEW YORK 2024: Siena College (A+)
PRES:
Biden 46% (+10)
Trump 36%
–
Biden 37% (+9)
Trump 28%
RFK Jr. 18%
West 5%
—
GOP PRES:
Trump 66%
Someone else 26%
—
GEN. BALLOT
DEM 49% (+15)
GOP 34%D49/R22/I28 | 803 RV | 11/12-15https://t.co/hRKUzxL7xO pic.twitter.com/1iWI35BxO0
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 20, 2023