The support of union households across Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada increasingly appears to be the critical swing vote in the 2024 presidential election. An ‘arms race’ is underway between President Joe Biden’s and former President Donald Trump’s campaigns to secure the votes of rank-and-file union members. However, data shows that former President Trump may hold an early edge.
Just before the 2020 election, internal polling conducted by POLITICO showed a near dead-heat between Biden and Trump with 48 and 47 percent of the union vote, respectively. A similar trend is emerging in polling data heading into the 2024 election. Former President Donald Trump and President Biden have shown to be tied at 47 percent each among union voters, according to a recent poll. The erosion of union support for Democrats, as well as Republican gains under Trump, in large part explains the former President’s consistent lead in swing-state polling.
Trump Prioritizes Union Workers.
Trump has made it a point to court union voters this election cycle. During the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike last year, he traveled to Michigan, where he delivered a historic policy speech laying out his “Patriotic Protectionism” agenda. During the strike, the former President expressed a certain degree of solidarity with the auto workers and noted Biden’s electric car mandates were hurting the American auto industry.
Despite UAW president Shawn Fain announcing the union will back Biden, rank-and-file members indicate they’re willing to break for Trump.
The Michigan speech was followed by Trump sitting down with Teamsters union leader Sean O’Brien late last year. That meeting was followed up earlier this week with the former President sitting down again with O’Brien and rank-and-file Teamsters members to discuss his agenda should he retake the White House. When asked about a potential Teamsters endorsement, Trump said: “Stranger things have happened.”
Union Votes Can Swing Key States.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States has 14.2 million union members. During the 2020 election, former President Trump saw significant gains among union households in Ohio and Pennsylvania — with the former President only narrowly losing the latter to Biden. In Wisconsin and Michigan, however, Joe Biden was able to hold his vote margins among union members, heading off Trump’s efforts to flip both states in his favor again.