Only 10 percent of Europeans believe Ukraine can secure victory in its war with Russia, according to a European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) study. The study reveals that optimism for Ukraine’s military prospects among Europeans plummeted following its unsuccessful counteroffensive last year and Russia’s crushing victory against Ukraine in the recent Battle of Avdeyevka.
The think tank polled 17,023 people across 12 European nations. While only one in ten believes Ukraine will beat Russia, 20 percent believe Russia will win, and 37 percent predict a negotiated peace settlement is the most probable outcome.
The poll also found divisive opinions among European Union member states regarding financial support for Ukraine. Only 20 percent of the populace from countries including Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden support increasing EU aid to Ukraine if the U.S. were to reduce its payments. A considerable majority in Romania, Italy, Greece, and Hungary support Ukraine negotiating a peace deal with Russia, as do 41 percent of Europeans overall.
This study reveals a significant sentiment of discord between citizens and their leaders in Europe. The ECFR warns that the EU’s stance towards Ukraine should be “rooted in reality” or risk validating the arguments of former President Donald Trump and other populist leaders who have previously criticized the European Union’s strategies.
The survey results strengthen the arguments of Republican lawmakers in the U.S., like Senator J.D. Vance, who have called on the country to stop funding the war and urge Ukraine to pursue peace. “We need to bring this war to a close,” Vance said in December 2023. “The thing that’s in our interest and in theirs is to stop the killing.”