Both Republicans and Democrats head to the polls today for Michigan’s primary elections. And while Joe Biden is the only pony in the Democrat race, there’s serious drama brewing that could preview his challenges in the 2024 general election.
Previewing the Democrat primary: When polls open at 7 AM EST, Democrat voters will get to choose between Joe Biden, Rep. Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson or cast an “uncommitted” vote.
- The latest poll has Joe Biden at 77 percent support, with Phillips a distant second with 7 percent.
- The ‘uncommitted’ factor: A coalition of Arab and Muslim leaders in Michigan, led by Rep. Rashida Tlaib, are urging their fellow Democrats to vote “uncommitted” tonight to protest Joe Biden’s support for Israel in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
- It’s estimated that Arab Americans in Michigan make up 3.1 percent of the population.
Previewing the GOP primary: For once, the Republican primary is the low-drama side of the night, with polling showing Donald Trump holding a dominating 57-point lead (78.7 to 21.8 percent) over his only challenger, Nikki Haley.
2024 implications: According to the official vote tally, Joe Biden won Michigan in 2020 by about 3 points (50.6 to 47.8 percent). But polling at the time had him down by almost 10 points. As we head into 2024, the polling is completely flipped:
- Trump has led Biden in 7 out 8 of the most recent major polls. The most recent poll has Trump up by 4 points in the state.