New York Magazine’s Jonathan Chait has declared that President Joe Biden should drop out of the Democratic primary despite being the incumbent if he is still behind by summer. The Democrat National Convention is scheduled for August 19-22.
Chait, a regular left-wing media commentator, wrote on Tuesday:
So as of now, it would take a five-point national swing to make the race a pure toss-up. How should we view that situation? On the one hand, there are still ten months to go. The economy is in fantastic shape, and another almost-year of prosperity — along with, hopefully, an end to the war between Israel and Hamas — might give Biden a significant boost in the polls.
On the other hand, this is a way of saying that there needs to be a lot of positive development, with no major bad news, just to get into coin-flip territory. And while it is still somewhat early, the electorate is deeply polarized, and Biden and Trump are both unusually well-known figures. All that suggests there aren’t a lot of persuadable voters out there.
Despite his farcical claim that Biden’s economy is “in fantastic shape,” it is becoming likelier that Republicans will run on immigration more than the economy. New forecasts have suggested America may experience 2.2 percent GDP growth in 2024, taking some of the sting out of right-leaning attacks on Bidenomics. Chait goes on:
Do I think the Democrats are at a point where this is their best chance of winning? At the moment, I don’t know. Biden is saddled with two giant problems. First, the inflation run-up of 2021-2022 left a bitter taste in the electorate’s mouth that the subsequent soft landing hasn’t erased. And second, his age is limiting his ability to campaign and probably making it hard for persuadable voters to believe he’s capable of handling the job (even though I believe he is).
There’s enough time for a combination of an improving economy and a more ambitious campaign effort to improve Biden’s standing on both fronts. But if summer rolls around and the president is still trailing by five points in the tipping-point state, I think the risks of staying the course will be larger than the risks of trying to get Biden to stand down.