A new poll appears to dash the Biden re-election campaign’s hopes that abortion could play a significant role in expanding the number of states in play during the 2024 presidential election. According to a new Emerson College survey, former President Donald Trump has jumped out to a double-digit lead over the 81-year-old President Joe Biden in Florida, despite the hope an abortion ballot referendum could narrow the race in the state.
The poll, conducted after the Florida Supreme Court approved ballot language for November’s election asking voters whether to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, shows Trump winning 51 percent of registered voters to Biden‘s 38 percent. Meanwhile, 11 percent of voters say they remain undecided. Despite Trump’s impressive lead, the abortion ballot measure received a plurality of voter support.
Democrats have pushed a series of state-level ballot measures securing abortion rights as part of their 2024 election strategy. Party operatives have theorized that the move would energize progressive and female voters to turn out for Biden and other Democrat candidates en masse — possibly even putting some previously sold-Republican states in play. President Biden himself suggested the abortion issue could pave the way for him to win Florida.
However, the Emerson College poll has thrown cold water on these hopes despite Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, previously projecting optimism. “Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” Rodriguez wrote following the Florida Supreme Court’s approval of the abortion ballot measure.
The same survey shows incumbent Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) jumping out to a seven-point lead over his Democrat challenger, former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.