A whip list of Republican senators and who they allegedly support to replace Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader has thrown the race into chaos, with conservative and MAGA activists acting on the information and pressuring numerous members to change their choice. While the quick mobilization and energy behind the campaign to shift the leadership race toward a more President-elect Donald J. Trump-friendly senator is both impressive and admirable, there is a slight problem: the alleged whip list is almost certainly not accurate.
In addition, the pressure campaign on Senators may even be backfiring—giving credence to the idea that the fake whip list didn’t originate as an attempt to help Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) but rather to hurt him. It may have been ‘leaked’ by allies of either Sen. Thune (R-SD) or Sen. Cornyn (R-TX), who are also running to be the next Senate leader.
THE WHIP LIST.
There are several tells as to why the whip list, first published on X (formerly Twitter) by content creator Benny Johnson, is either highly speculative or an outright head-fake. First and foremost, the list suggests that Sen. John Thune—currently the front-runner to be the next Senate Majority Leader—is backing Sen. Cornyn, one of his challengers. Simply put, if this were true, it would be simply moronic and absent any plausible strategy. It should be noted that, according to the list, Sen. Rick Scott has the good sense to vote for himself, as does Cornyn.
Also making the whip list suspect—and likely just the errant fantasy of a Senate staffer—is that Senators remain out of Washington, D.C., and out of session until Tuesday, November 12. Since late September, Senators have been in their states for a scheduled work period, which gives time for the final stretch of campaigning right before the November election. While some Senators have certainly talked with one another about the leadership race, it is doubtful that anyone outside of Thune, Cornyn, and Scott have anything close to a complete whip count of where the entirety of the Republican caucus stands.
A PLOT TO HURT SCOTT?
Unlike members of the House of Representatives, Senators are somewhat insulated from voter backlash by their six-year terms in office. Additionally, unlike the House, Senators select their leadership through a secret ballot. These two factors, unfortunately, mean that pressure campaigns are as likely to alienate members of the upper legislative chamber as to influence them. It is conceivable that the whip list didn’t originate with Sen. Scott but with Sens. Thune or Cornyn, who anticipated the reaction and hoped it would hurt the Florida Republican’s leadership bid.
This morning, POLITICO reported—citing an anonymous senator—that the campaign built off Benny Johnson’s whip list may be backfiring.
“But the bulk of the Republican rank-and-file is not pleased. At all. We spoke with one senator who was aghast at the effort, as well as a GOP aide who said the campaign is ‘pissing off senators whose votes Rick needs’ to win,” the corporate media outlet stated. While the musings of an anonymous Senator should taken with a grain of salt, it is reasonable to speculate that the intended impact of the whip list wasn’t to help Scott’s bid for Majority Leader but to hurt it.
WHERE THINGS (LIKELY) STAND.
In reality, the list reported by Punchbowl is perhaps the most accurate accounting of where Republican senators stand. According to their reporting, Thune (outside himself) is being backed by Sens. Steve Daines (R-MT), Mike Rounds (S-SD), and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK). John Cornyn is being supported by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO). Meanwhile, Sen. Scott is seeing support from Sens. Ron Johnson (R-WI), Rand Paul (R-KY), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Bill Hagerty (R-TN), and Tomm Tuberviller (R-AL).
The remaining members have either not publicly endorsed or otherwise indicated which candidate they will back for Majority Leader.
